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The Federal Reserve: Between a rock and a hard (market) place
The Federal Reserve (Fed), and markets, overreacted to the slightly higher inflation seen during the first quarter of the year. After that scare, the Fed went from expecting three cuts in the federal funds rate in 2024 to just one cut during its June dot plot release. Meanwhile, the markets went from expecting six to seven rate cuts in 2024 back in December of 2023 to barely one cut a little more than two months ago. Overreaction is how the market reacts to new information and, in the end, is the nature of the beast. But the Fed should know better. We understand the increase in the institution’s risk aversion ... (full story)