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Foreign Exchange Outlook
The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets. We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage. USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. The data ... (full story)