Menu
Sister Sites

  • US Producer Price Index - August 2024

    From bls.gov

    The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August. The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.3 percent in August, the same as in ... (full story)

Added at 8:41am

  • Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations

    From cnbc.com

    Wholesale prices rose in August about in line with expectations, the final inflation data point as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower interest rates. The producer price index, a measure of final demand goods and services costs that producers receive, increased 0.2% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. That matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate. Excluding food and energy, PPI increased 0.3%, slightly hotter than the 0.2% consensus estimate. The core increase was the same when excluding trade services. In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department said initial filings for ... (full story)

FED pricing 50bps cut next
it's impossible for 50 cut for september.
Next week's FED meeting will be fun.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
ForexEA PRO Return This Month: 5.5%
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:14fd:24e6
Why is dollar down? There is literally no 50bps cut
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.200.16
Ppi increase , Fed will cut 25 point properly
They need to increase by 75 bps and crash the market by 50%-75% for next 2 years to bring inflation under control w, What the FED is trying is BS eye wash , to please BIDEN and team
Quoting frioslegend
FED pricing 50bps cut next
The /Zqu4 contract (Sept fed fund rate future) hasn't changed much at all (2%) since before the PPI number though. Still only a 15-17% probability baked into the market of a 50bps cut. This means two things: 1) the "market" does NOT anticipate a 50bps cut. 2) if the FED cuts 50, there will be craziness abound.

I am waiting here to see our favorite two contrarians to come comment that this PPI print proves there will be no cuts in 2024 though.


https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html


P S. Here's hoping today isn't a repeat of our CPI morning where the equity market "shrugged off" the number into the open only to crash without a positive tick for the first 60 minutes post-open.
Quoting OnlineAddict
Next week's FED meeting will be fun.
Like...The fun of funs...
Quoting gzforex20
They need to increase by 75 bps and crash the market by 50%-75% for next 2 years to bring inflation under control w, What the FED is trying is BS eye wash , to please BIDEN and team
You better believe the Republicans don't want the market to crash 50 over the next two years.....every one of them would be at risk in their confessional elections in 2026....I bet the Republicans would appreciate a pullback into late October though
Maximum 25BPS cut anticipated
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.125.78
There's a 55% possibility of a 30% chance of a 50 BPS cut
They didn't cut in July by 25bps, so they might cut by 50bps now. Selections are near... they can't cut now by 25bps and then 75bps after the selections, it'll look weird. I'll mention it again. Forecast for the first rate cut by the Fed in 2007. was also 25bps, but they ended up cutting by 50bps. We'll see... I'd say 50bps cut is as possible as 25bps cut.
Quoting Guest
Why is dollar down? There is literally no 50bps cut
this page did not show the PPI and core PPI Y/Y which are brutally decreased that’s why Dollar is down
Quoting Kuchdara
{quote} this page did not show the PPI and core PPI Y/Y which are brutally decreased that’s why Dollar is down
That's not why dollar is down. Every other piece of data was very green. Dollar is down because it hit resistance and people kept buying it. It's called liquidity.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} That's not why dollar is down. Every other piece of data was very green. Dollar is down because it hit resistance and people kept buying it. It's called liquidity.
Hmmm… I think this technical theory would be good match and I also agree if the price action before and after the news for few hours but if you look at the data of M/M is good And other hand Y/Y PPI down from 2.1% to 1.7%. However if people kept buying it, would be great for dollar
Gold and many indices are at ot close to ATH, inflation data is fudged , fed should have never stopped to not hike rate needs to be at 8-9%% or more if they have any intent to reduce inflation
Quoting gzforex20
Gold and many indices are at ot close to ATH, inflation data is fudged , fed should have never stopped to not hike rate needs to be at 8-9%% or more if they have any intent to reduce inflation
8 or 9% yikes. I mean, we have been there before, but this isn't Turkey.

Can you help me understand your point about not having inflation under control when it (on paper) is meaningfully below the historical average? (Asking for a friend)

FWIW, the chance of a 50bps cut has doubled since my comment this morning. Now roughly a 35% chance. That said, I am starting to grow weary of this fed fund futures estimator. It shifts wildly throughout the day with (seemingly) very little news to impact it.

I will say this though, with respect to next week's FMOC meeting: it stands to be one crazy day for sure. I don't know if anyone was watching the /nq today but take a look at that bad boy on a 1-min chart. Let me know when you see some interesting candle(s). It almost seemed like a big player was trying out a strategy ahead of a major news announcement. This is 'tin foil hat' stuff to be sure, but any time I see 50% of an entire day's expected move occurring in 35 seconds without any news release, I start to question if something bigger is being planned. Note the 9:35AM and 1:51~1:52PM bars. 100+ points in under a minute each. THAT is some wild action.
  • New Comment
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.184.63
Join FF
    • Older Stories  
    US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

    From dol.gov|Sep 12, 2024

    In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous ...

    ECB Monetary policy decisions

    From ecb.europa.eu|Sep 12, 2024|6 comments

    The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. Based on the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction. Recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected, and the latest ECB staff projections confirm the previous inflation outlook. Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, as in the June projections. Inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards our target over the second half of next year. For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised up slightly, as services inflation has been higher than expected. At the same time, staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. post: ECB Cuts Deposit Facility Rate By 25Bps To 3.50%, From 3.75%; As Expected - Cuts Main Refinancing Rate By 60Bps To 3.65% - Cuts Marginal Lending Facility By 60Bps To 3.90% post: ECB: INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR post: ECB: THE INTEREST RATE DECISIONS WILL BE BASED ON ITS ASSESSMENT OF INFLATION OUTLOOK IN LIGHT OF INCOMING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA, DYNAMICS OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND STRENGTH OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION. post: ECB CUTS GROWTH FORECASTS FOR EVERY YEAR THROUGH 2026 ECB: INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR

    ECB to Cut Interest Rates as Growth Dwindles but Focus Already on October

    From money.usnews.com|Sep 12, 2024

    The European Central Bank is almost certain to cut interest rates again on Thursday, but with inflation risks simmering despite anaemic growth, investors will be combing its ...

  • Story Stats

  • Related Stories