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  • US Consumer Price Index - August 2024

    From bls.gov

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase. The food index increased 0.1 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July. The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent over the month, while the index for food at home was unchanged. The energy index fell 0.8 percent over ... (full story)

Added at 8:33am

  • Consumer prices rose 0.2% in August with core inflation higher than expected

    From cnbc.com

    Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in a week. The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus. That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level and compared to the estimate for 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the ... (full story)

False
Quoting Ftmofx
False
Indeed, its actually lower.
Quoting Ftmofx
False
i think Stocks(tech) will fall even more till November... and stocks(Agricultural stocks) to keep rising till November. I expect a 45% chance for 50bps cut
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Quoting Ftmofx
False
what do you mean by "False"?
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I see only a 0.25% percent move this Sept. Inflation will take longer to get down. How much more deterioration can the labor market face before the FEDS just have to pick a lane? Either you start combatting weakening employment at the risk of inflation going back upwards or you try to be more restrictive for longer but end up weakening the labor aspect even further. It's an interesting seesaw they're trying to maneuver.
Very mixed. Shelter prices are keeping the core number higher. Gas prices are helping overall CPI come down. I don't think this is enough to continue the 50 bps narrative.


The shelter index rose by 0.5% in August, after a 0.2% increase in July. This was the largest driver of the overall CPI increase. Over the past 12 months, the shelter index is up 3.2%, accounting for over 70% of the total 12-month increase in all items less food and energy.

Electricity prices rose 3.9% over the last 12 months, maintaining steady pressure on utility costs.

Food away from home increased by 0.3% in August after a rise of 0.2% in July, indicating continued upward pressure on restaurant and dining prices.

The energy index increased 0.8% month-over-month, reversing from a flat performance in July.

The medical care services index saw an increase of 0.2% in August and is up 3.8% over the last 12 months.

After several months of decline, airline fares rose 3.9% in August, marking a reversal of previous trends.


Over the last 12 months, The all-items CPI has increased by 2.5%, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.

The gasoline index decreased 0.6% in August, following a 0.0% change in July. Over the past 12 months, gasoline prices have fallen 10.3%, contributing to an overall 4.0% decline in energy prices.

Food prices remained largely stable in August. The index for food at home was unchanged. The 12-month increase in food prices was 2.1%, a smaller rise compared to previous periods.

The index for used cars and trucks dropped by 1.0% in August, following a 2.3% decline in July, reflecting continued easing in prices for this category. Over the past 12 months, used car prices have dropped by 10.4%.

Prices for new vehicles fell by 0.5% in August, contributing to a 1.0% decline over the past year, indicating easing price pressures in this category.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
I just want to know how the markets still speculate the 100 bps in cuts?

I only see 0.25% at SEPT currently. Do we get a 0.50% move and a 0.25% in the next two meetings? I think that would cause quite an alarm if FED starting aggressively cutting like that without the data deterioration matching that of course.

We are close to the end games now.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Momofrmnyc
I just want to know how the markets still speculate the 100 bps in cuts? I only see 0.25% at SEPT currently. Do we get a 0.50% move and a 0.25% in the next two meetings? I think that would cause quite an alarm if FED starting aggressively cutting like that without the data deterioration matching that of course. We are close to the end games now.
Have you managed to see all the 14 million options?
Quoting EventsTrader
Very mixed. Shelter prices are keeping the core number higher. Gas prices are helping overall CPI come down. I don't think this is enough to continue the 50 bps narrative. ,...
Current update is 15% .50 to 85% for .25
its all just one persons opinion....
Quoting Momofrmnyc
I just want to know how the markets still speculate the 100 bps in cuts? I only see 0.25% at SEPT currently. Do we get a 0.50% move and a 0.25% in the next two meetings? I think that would cause quite an alarm if FED starting aggressively cutting like that without the data deterioration matching that of course. We are close to the end games now.
Problem is we always get new better data than expected. Big boys are already deep in red due to push against the dollar. You can see how they struggle all over the board, not accepting bigger gains of USD. But pressure is high. For weeks now. Let's see if they are able to push it down today again (the USD). Problem is also the carry trades, especially today. Huge loss for the big boys and BOJ currently.
Quoting Momofrmnyc
I just want to know how the markets still speculate the 100 bps in cuts? I only see 0.25% at SEPT currently. Do we get a 0.50% move and a 0.25% in the next two meetings? I think that would cause quite an alarm if FED starting aggressively cutting like that without the data deterioration matching that of course. We are close to the end games now.
Agree. 100 bps in cuts by end of year is outlandish. There's no way in current climate. The bullish scenario would be 75 (three 25s). Base case is still a Sep cut of 25 bps.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Good one for gold sell
Quoting EventsTrader
Very mixed. Shelter prices are keeping the core number higher. Gas prices are helping overall CPI come down. I don't think this is enough to continue the 50 bps narrative. The shelter index rose by 0.5% in August, after a 0.2% increase in July. This was the largest driver of the overall CPI increase. Over the past 12 months, the shelter index is up 3.2%, accounting for over 70% of the total 12-month increase in all items less food and energy. Electricity prices rose 3.9% over the last 12 months,...
Literally the most important food/utilities and housing all sky rocketed again. This is just beginning of problems for the US. Airline fares are dropping cause people are literally on the financial brink.
This is predicted since OIL stand under US70/Barrel, CPI of course down. But with Core CPI (it means Food and Energy excluded) up by 0.1% and stay in range 3.2% YoY. Atleast if Core CPI stand at 0.2% till december, we can see 2-3 times "Cuts" till end of 2024. Now we only need to clear about cycle of cuts. But with this data 25bps is a clear objective. We got NFP and CPI data today. Maybe i wrong but this is my opinion.
no cut rate in 2024
Follow price direction
Quoting hesron
no cut rate in 2024
That would be devastating. I take that seriously what you say. Datas show topping but no cooling down, I agree.
CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.187%.

Core CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.281%.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting hesron
no cut rate in 2024
we still need to cut rate. This is not about only inflation but also about labor market. We get clearly about labor market situation but not with inflation. Atleast 1 cut will happen but myself even have no confident with 2-3 times cuts if inflation stay and labor market keep strong. Atleast we know we are too far about "recession" and we only need more data to make "soft landing" happening.
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} Problem is we always get new better data than expected. Big boys are already deep in red due to push against the dollar. You can see how they struggle all over the board, not accepting bigger gains of USD. But pressure is high. For weeks now. Let's see if they are able to push it down today again (the USD). Problem is also the carry trades, especially today. Huge loss for the big boys and BOJ currently.
they are just extremely slowing the reversal, be patient as always
chaos is just unknown order
NFP and ADP data firmly say that inflation is cooling. Rising is fake. Market do not believe it. Gold will touch 2550
Quoting ashimkhan
Good one for gold sell
Gold is safer to buy everytime it dips.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
ForexEA PRO Return This Month: -2.6%
Quoting Catalyst24
{quote} we still need to cut rate. This is not about only inflation but also about labor market. We get clearly about labor market situation but not with inflation. Atleast 1 cut will happen but myself even have no confident with 2-3 times cuts if inflation stay and labor market keep strong. Atleast we know we are too far about "recession" and we only need more data to make "soft landing" happening.
interest rate cuts are dependent on US interests and needs, not on public expectations and interests
Follow price direction
Lies, lies and utter lies.
Movin' on...
The dollar is king !
Master your mind. Master Trading.
Gold is King, USD is shit.
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Gold is the boom king
Quoting Silver-King
Gold is King, USD is shit.
Is okay I’m still enjoying my USD buys as of now and stop loss in profit it can be shit later !
Master your mind. Master Trading.
USD against other currencies isn't shit, but against things that are actually valuable as opposed to the toilet paper that USD, EUR and other currencies are.

All good!
Data like this means there is going to be cutting or rates from about 25bs, because of the labour market,and we needs more jobs creation for the economy to have a good growth or this might lead to a recession on a 22% chance,and the major trading high yeilding currency are showing some major downside on the commodity they produced,that is bad for which means we might start expecting an high rate cut in USA for the growth of other countries indirectly
market reaction to CPI was meh, but the markets are sliding hard today as it sinks in that the Rep candidate for POTUS is clearly not fit for the office.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Now currently buy jpy and other lower yeilding currency is more wiser choice for the time being or options
Eurcad flash crash
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4xbook Return This Year: 109.3%
Quoting The Fool
market reaction to CPI was meh, but the markets are sliding hard today as it sinks in that the Rep candidate for POTUS is clearly not fit for the office.
You were saying??

I can't BELIEVE the swing today (on such insignificant initial CPI movement). Maybe someone can help me here because I am missing it. The move on CPI (prior to the open), okay, I got that...well within practical movements.

The fed watch estimates for Sept were locked in at the 85/15 (25/50 bps) estimates. Those haven't moved much.

But then, in the open, the market tanks. And not a little (maybe back down to CPI release lows), but darn near lows from last Friday's post-market sell off. Even THIS I can "understand", as selling pressures mount and vol was expanding quickly.

Here is where I am lost though: the timing of the reversal made sense (the 10 AM CST hour has been a bottoming bar before)....but to see the thing rip so much?!? Never would I have thought that. I am in heaven with respect to my positions because of it, but I HATE not understanding why it happened.

The only thing I can see is that the fed watch tool from earlier today had a 100% chance of the fed rate being 275-300 at the Sept 2025 meeting uh, WHAT?!? I immediately considered we all go short that thing because, unless I was not understanding the tool clearly, it was suggesting 2.25 full points if cuts in 12 months. That is so crazy, it just HAD to be wrong. Now, that number has backed off a bit on this rally (to basically only an 80% chance, but still).

One other thing I noticed, however, was that the volume on those /zqu5 contracts was so thin. Like 4 per 5 minute bar being traded. Now, you couldn't run in an affect the curve solo (without some decent buying power behind you) as there were around 300 contracts on the bid and 300 on the ask. So, that makes me discount the validity of those distant numbers....but still: over 2 full points in what, 10 meetings?? Wild stuff. Due to the illiquidity, however, so can't believe changes to those figures really bolster the markets this much.

In any event, I am still scratching my head to figure out how we are at new daily highs after a 2% selloff on the open. I guess it is just one of those bear trap days where we (at at minimum I) have to say "thank you bulls!" (for now anyway, until the 1PM or 2PM CST 3% sell off occurs, right??)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
Quoting ffghost
{quote} You were saying?? I can't BELIEVE the swing today (on such insignificant initial CPI movement). Maybe someone can help me here because I am missing it. The move on CPI (prior to the open), okay, I got that...well within practical movements. The fed watch estimates for Sept were locked in at the 85/15 (25/50 bps) estimates. Those haven't moved much. But then, in the open, the market tanks. And not a little (maybe back down to CPI release lows), but darn near lows from last Friday's post-market sell off. Even THIS I can "understand",...
Nasdaq & spx will sell hard...Wheat.. Soybean..corn will buy hard. Don't look at this manipulation guys... it's already priced In!!!
Quoting Assaultking
{quote} Nasdaq & spx will sell hard...Wheat.. Soybean..corn will buy hard. Don't look at this manipulation guys... it's already priced In!!!
I am not so sure about a massive selloff (famous last words, right?). It can certainly happen, but have you looked at the VIX? That is about as big as an intra-day reversal gets in that instrument.

If we ARE going to get a big pullback into the close though, now (1PM or if not 1 2PM CST) is about the time it would start (hence the present stall, again, for no real reason other than a timestamp).
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Quoting bel3ouchi
Eurcad flash crash {image}
I don't see this on my charts and neither on FF. Who's your broker? This is insane... this is a double of what happened to EUR/CHF and in a minute? We'd heard about this if it really happened.
Quoting ffghost
{quote} You were saying?? ...
Days like this I am glad I'm bi. Bi-directional, that is. In the last 7 trading days, /ES has seen 3 days with range over 130, two days over 150. All a trader needs is a market that moves....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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