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ECB's Sept Meeting: Wide Open and Shut
Sure as the sun will rise, the ECB is set to cut rates on September 12 but will be noncommittal, or wishy-washy, about what happens next. At the last meeting, President Lagarde called September “wide open”, but a cut—just the second one this cycle—is likely a done deal, as inflation has come down to a 3- year low of 2.2% and core CPI is at a 4-month low of 2.8%. Broader economic growth is still soft (in fact, Q2 GDP was revised down) although cooler inflation is boosting real household incomes. And growth in the ECB’s negotiated wages indicator slowed to 3.6% in Q2, which should green-light a cut. Meantime, ... (full story)
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