Menu
Sister Sites

  • US Job Openings and Labor Turnover – July 2024

    From bls.gov

    The number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.5 million. Total separations increased to 5.4 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. Job Openings On the last business day of July, the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million and ... (full story)

"little changed" they say
Quoting NithinPaul
"little changed" they say
This is not a little change!!! It shows there is cause for alarm related to US Employment.
On a broad view it's actually very good for their policy lol. It's exactly what they wanted, less price pressure without unemployment above 6% all looks like it will happen in America.. bear traps Inc on this news
Quoting Horiyomy
{quote} This is not a little change!!! It shows there is cause for alarm related to US Employment.
It went from 7.910M openings to 7.673M. How is that alarming? Sure, it was under "expectations", but the real data isn't that far off...especially for an economy wherein the FED was hoping to stem the incredibly hot labor market a bit.

Now, I WILL concede that the markets will read into this whatever they want:
a) US is in turmoil/labor market crashing!
b) FED policy is working and cooling the market without causing a recession
c>>infinity) insert favorite position here....

We'll see later this week, but job OPENINGS doesn't indicate people are LOSING thier jobs.....it just means that companies are starting to dial in a bit not expecting wild growth to continue. If you look at the "hires" category, you will see that there were 5.521M hires in July vs 5.248M hires in June. Doesn't that sound positive to you?
Quoting Windstrown
On a broad view it's actually very good for their policy lol. It's exactly what they wanted, less price pressure without unemployment above 6% all looks like it will happen in America.. bear traps Inc on this news
I really hope you are right (as for the traps). I was expecting some movement in the equity markets based on yesterday anyway, but that was a wild 5 minute candle for seemingly benign numbers.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.85.123
that was Wild Not LIttle ......
USD could not overcome the bearish path. Gold will give up a short-term bearish tone and will continue to bullish firm.
Dow struggle to find direction.
Quoting Ftmofx
USD could not overcome the bearish path. Gold will give up a short-term bearish tone and will continue to bullish firm.
For the kids at home, you might have to define "short term bearish tone" in gold. Yesterday was the first down day outside of a week-long consolidation at highs for gold. It is still holding at 8/22 lows and the 20day MA.

I guess it works if you define bearish as "didn't make new all time highs today"
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:8550:f616
read the data, hires actually improved from June to July from 5.2 to 5.5m
Quoting Bakker
Dow struggle to find direction.
Don't get me wrong, at $12 trillion, the DJIA (/ym futures) isn't a meaningless index, but (for those playing the home game), you're much better off following the S&P (/es futures, $48 trillion market cap) as to directional bias....unless your focus is more on industrial equities.

That said, the /ym was off like a shot this morning before anything else even moved. A pull back before choosing a direction was almost guaranteed. However, everything is going to be choppy after yesterday and the JOLTS report.

Directional bias (see /nq) has certainly been to the downside since August 21, but the bulls can't let this thing get TOO far away from them over the course of this week or it will be really hard (CPI/PPI/consumer sentiment next week) to justify any sort of rally into FOMC.....and whatever happens after that meeting is anyone's guess.
Quoting Guest
read the data, hires actually improved from June to July from 5.2 to 5.5m
Hehe, yep. I said the same.

Although, to be fair, price action (chop) suggested that figure didn't mean much. Whatever direction taken now also has to assume it doesn't mean much.....because if hires was paramount, then the market would have immediately rallied and never looked back.
it means the labor market is under pressure
Jobs are really plummeting at a rapid rate, yesterdays data is confirming stagflation.

Let's see what NFP brings and revisions that they will make to previous months.
A huge miss with a big revision.

Historically, JOLTS is still relatively very high. The healthcare and transportation sectors have shown substantial declines in job openings, while professional and business services saw growth. Quits Rate remained steady, indicating stable employee confidence in voluntarily leaving jobs, though year-over-year trends show a decrease.

Notables:

Openings increased in professional and business services (+178,000) and federal government (+28,000).

Hires increased in accommodation and food services by 156,000.

Total Separations: Increased to 5.4 million (+336,000), driven by both quits and layoffs. Quits decreased by 338,000 compared to the previous year.


Total Job Openings at 7.7 million, little changed from the previous month (after monstrous revision) but down by 1.1 million from July 2023.

Significant decreases in job openings were observed in health care and social assistance (-187,000), state and local government (-101,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000).
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
The biggest impact this had is that the fed funds futures are now indicating pretty much a coin flip between a 25 and 50 bps cut in July (53% and 47% respectively at the time of this post). That's a HUGE change from a couple of weeks ago (only a 22% chance of a 50bps cut on August 22nd for example).
Quoting ffghost
The biggest impact this had is that the fed funds futures are now indicating pretty much a coin flip between a 25 and 50 bps cut in July (53% and 47% respectively at the time of this post). That's a HUGE change from a couple of weeks ago (only a 22% chance of a 50bps cut on August 22nd for example).
Yeah I'm watching that. I'm not sure in what world the Fed is going to deliver a 50 bps cut. Outside of a disastrous NFP I think that's going to have to come back to Earth. I'd expect Waller on Friday to maybe deliver the final guidance before the blackout.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Yeah I'm watching that. I'm not sure in what world the Fed is going to deliver a 50 bps cut. Outside of a disastrous NFP I think that's going to have to come back to Earth. I'd expect Waller on Friday to maybe deliver the final guidance before the blackout.
Looking at employment index's that's what we are going to get a disastrous NFP, I believe unemployment rate will tick up AGAIN, and most jobs created will be government jobs to prop the number up.

Also birth/death model is completely flawed.

u6 unemployment will show the damage.
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Looking at employment index's that's what we are going to get a disastrous NFP, I believe unemployment rate will tick up AGAIN, and most jobs created will be government jobs to prop the number up. Also birth/death model is completely flawed. u6 unemployment will show the damage.
We'll see. I thought the labor market would've softened a long time ago. Maybe it was and it just hasn't been reflected in the data. We might be singing a different tune if that -818K jobs revision was reflected as lower numbers when they came out. Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised if the jobs data comes in weak but I'm not going to call it. I'm not sure there's a weak enough (positive) number to get me on board with those thinking the Fed is going to gift the market a 50 bps rate cut. Ain't happening.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} We'll see. I thought the labor market would've softened a long time ago. Maybe it was and it just hasn't been reflected in the data. We might be singing a different tune if that -818K jobs revision was reflected as lower numbers when they came out. Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised if the jobs data comes in weak but I'm not going to call it. I'm not sure there's a weak enough (positive) number to get me on board with those thinking the Fed is going to gift the market a 50 bps rate cut. Ain't happening.
Agreed - I just don't see how the FED will be able to pull a 50bps. Right now we got a Sept for certain, do we even know if the data will deteriorate enough for a Oct & Dec cut? Only time and data will tell at this moment.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Momofrmnyc
{quote} Agreed - I just don't see how the FED will be able to pull a 50bps. Right now we got a Sept for certain, do we even know if the data will deteriorate enough for a Oct & Dec cut? Only time and data will tell at this moment.
I don't think the data will come in soft enough for what the market is pricing in.

Market is pricing in >100 bps of cuts through the end of the year. 50 of that in Sept. That's way too much unless things really start to deteriorate, and at a fast rate.

Also, I think people might be discounting a scenario in which the Fed cuts rates and inflation starts to rear its head again. They do not want to have to hike after starting the easing cycle. I expect the cuts to be small and methodical. Not large and aggressive.

This Friday's NFP should be a good one.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I don't think the data will come in soft enough for what the market is pricing in. Market is pricing in >100 bps of cuts through the end of the year. 50 of that in Sept. That's way too much unless things really start to deteriorate, and at a fast rate. Also, I think people might be discounting a scenario in which the Fed cuts rates and inflation starts to rear its head again. They do not want to have to hike after starting the easing cycle. I expect the cuts to be small and methodical. Not large and aggressive. This Friday's NFP should...
That's the thing that has me slightly intrigued. We aren't the only ones to voice the disconnect with what the markets expect the FEDS to do vs the actual data that has come in regards to rate cutting.

I can't see a 100 BPS currently like you said unless all the DATA just rapidly deteriorates in this last quarter which again doesn't seem very likely at this current junction.

The bigger at play which I think is more likely to occur is if they start cutting rates and inflation starts making upward moves what do you? Like you said the last thing you'd want in start an easing cycle is for inflation to start picking up.

The cuts have to be small at this point and I agree it should be precise and in planned ordinance.

The incoming data will definitely dictate the trajectory of how fast/slow the rate cuts will be for me.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Vancarbon
If traders can’t see there’s massive distribution going on here then I’ll say nothing and let them buy the dip. Nothing has changed from yesterday. Slowdown as per the manufacturing figures. 5th month in a row, I’ll let that sink in .
Manufacturing slowdown started in 2022. Contracting 21 of the last 22 months. We haven't seen anything lower than 46. We probably will though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Manufacturing slowdown started in 2022. Contracting 21 of the last 22 months. We haven't seen anything lower than 46. We probably will though. {image}
Not to necro an old thread, but, as you indicated, it is worth noticing that there has not been a dramatic drop. From the graphical data available on FF, this stretch has been the longest (charts go back to early 2000s). In all previous "recession" situations, a massive and sudden spike lower occurs. Nowhere is seen a 2 year stretch of slow contraction. Now, one could argue we didn't see COVID before either, so the injected liquidity combined with....blah, blah, blah. We all know that story.

Another argument could be made that THIS time, the soft landing approach is exactly what the readings show. A gradual decline and recession avoidance. I guess we will know in a few years. Who knows, this could have been what the great depression numbers looked like (very doubtful though).
  • New Comment
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.140.17
Join FF
    • Older Stories  
    Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4¼%

    From bankofcanada.ca|Sep 4, 2024

    The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy expanded by about 2½% in the second quarter, consistent with projections in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, economic growth was stronger than expected, led by consumption, but the labour market has slowed. Euro-area growth has been boosted by tourism and other services, while manufacturing has been soft. Inflation in both regions continues to moderate. In China, weak domestic demand weighed on economic growth. Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower US dollar. Oil prices are lower than assumed in the July MPR. post: MACKLEM: WE NEED TO INCREASINGLY GUARD AGAINST RISK THAT ECONOMY IS TOO WEAK AND INFLATION FALLS TOO MUCH post: BANK OF CANADA LOWERS O/N INTEREST RATE TO 4.25% **BOC CITES CONTINUED EASING IN BROAD INFLATIONARY PRESSURES **BOC: EXCESS SUPPLY IN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PUT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION, WHILE PRICE INCREASES IN SHELTER AND SOME OTHER SERVICES ARE HOLDING INFLATION UP… post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO EASE BROADLY IN LINE WITH OUR JULY FORECAST, IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT FURTHER RATE CUTS.Bank of Canada cuts interest rates for 3rd-straight month The Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate for the third straight time, bringing it to 4.25 per cent. It was widely expected that the central bank would lower its key policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 per cent — which would mark its third consecutive rate cut. That’s despite economic growth coming in stronger than the Bank of Canada expected in the second quarter. Statistics Canada says the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 per cent for that quarter. But real gross domestic product continued to shrink on a per-person basis, marking the fifth consecutive decline. Economists typically look at GDP per capita to assess the standard of living. Overall economic growth also halted toward the end of the quarter as real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged for June. A preliminary estimate suggested the economy remained flat in July as well. “Growth in the Canadian economy was modestly better than expected in Q2, but weak momentum heading into the third quarter gives ample reason for the BoC to continue cutting interest rates,” CIBC

    Bank of Canada expected to cut again in interest rate announcement this morning

    From ca.finance.yahoo.com|Sep 4, 2024

    The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time when it makes its interest rate announcement today at 9:45 a.m. ET, as it continues to loosen monetary ...

    OPEC+ discussing delay to planned oil output hike in October, sources say

    From zawya.com|Sep 4, 2024

    OPEC+ is discussing a delay in a planned output increase next month as oil prices hit their lowest in 9 months, three sources from the producer group told Reuters on Wednesday. ...

    •   Newer Stories
    Bostic: We must not maintain a restrictive policy stance for too long

    From @DeItaone|Sep 4, 2024

    post: BOSTIC: FED IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE POSITION BOSTIC: FED MUST STAY VIGILANT TO ENSURE INFLATION RISKS CONTINUE TO WANE BOSTIC: SOFT LANDING FOR ECONOMY MAY BE WITHIN REACH BOSTIC: WE MUST NOT MAINTAIN A RESTRICTIVE POLICY STANCE FOR TOO LONG post: FED'S BOSTIC: PRICE PRESSURES ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY AND BROADLY. post: FED'S BOSTIC: I AM NOT QUITE PREPARED TO DECLARE VICTORY OVER INFLATION AS RISKS REMAIN. post: FED'S BOSTIC: I AM NOW GIVING EQUAL ATTENTION TO MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT OBJECTIVE AS INFLATION.Bostic: Shifting Focus to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate I am writing this a few weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee's highly anticipated September 17 and 18 meeting. Of course, I cannot and will not predict what action the Committee might take. But I will outline the evolving economic and monetary policy environment as I see it. And I would like to home in on one particularly timely dynamic: the balancing of my risk outlook as it pertains to the Committee's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. I have focused mainly on the price stability side of the mandate since inflation spiked in 2021, as we were clearly further from that goal than from the goal for maximum employment. But as the labor market has cooled in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted, and I am today giving basically equal attention to the maximum employment objective. The labor market continues to weaken, but it is not weak. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year, yet at 4.3 percent is just a smidge above the Committee's long-run projection of 4.2 percent. Monthly job creation paints a similar picture. The 12-month moving average was a still-healthy 209,000 new jobs a month through July 2024. But that number has steadily declined from a 12-month average of 264,000 in July 2023. (I will note that the Bureau of Labor Statistic has signaled that these growth numbers are likely to be revised downward in the next benchmark revision, in February 2025.) Another key metric, the number of hires as a percentage of employment, or the hires rate, has retreated to roughly the prepandemic trend. And job openings across the economy remain above levels that prevailed before 2020, but are down substantially from the peaks of 2022. Given those data, it is not surprising that the once-yawning gap between high labor demand (employed people plus job openings) and lower labor supply (employed plus the unemployed) has gradually narrowed to under 1.5 million in June from more than 5

    British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Rally Halted at Resistance

    From forex.com|Sep 4, 2024

    The British Pound snapped a two-week winning streak last week with GBP/USD reversing off confluent uptrend resistance. The risk rises for a larger correction within the broader ...

    Macklem: Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement

    From bankofcanada.ca|Sep 4, 2024

    Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s policy announcement. Today, we lowered the policy interest rates by 25 basis ...

  • Story Stats

  • Related Stories