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  • Labour market overview, UK: August 2024

    From ons.gov.uk

    This month's labour market figures show that the number of vacancies is continuing to fall, although these are still 11.0% higher than in January to March 2020. The unemployment rate is slightly below that of a year ago, while there was a modest increase in both the total number of people in employment and the number of payrolled employees in the latest quarter. Our Annual growth rate comparisons dataset, which includes comparisons of HM Revenue and Customs Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI), and Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, sets out the annual growth rates for these measures in recent periods ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.199.107
135K... just wow! I know the economy is a disaster and we are heading for a rather heavy crash, but these numbers are just so bad it's unbelievable.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.14.23
you need to look behind the data - this goes some way towards explaining it.

The UK Claimant Count for July 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.801 million. Commencing in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions are rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.42.48
unbelievable.
Quoting Guest
135K... just wow! I know the economy is a disaster and we are heading for a rather heavy crash, but these numbers are just so bad it's unbelievable.
Hold your horses, there.
It's not actually comparing like with like. Take a look at the OBR detail and you should note that they have changed the data parameters, which means that it's classed as "Under Development" for 6 months.
The Unemployment % figure is, therefore, on this occasion more of a reliable trend indicator.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.201.150
Quoting DaJoWaBa
{quote} Hold your horses, there. It's not actually comparing like with like. Take a look at the OBR detail and you should note that they have changed the data parameters, which means that it's classed as "Under Development" for 6 months. The Unemployment % figure is, therefore, on this occasion more of a reliable trend indicator.
I looked at the chart and saw that the only time this number was this high was in March of 2009. which was the highest number (139K) during the whole GFC.

Under development? Just another euphemism trying to portray things in the brighter light and not how things really are.

If they are changing how they calculate something, then it's probably because it's even worse if calculated in the way it was calculated until now.

It all doesn't really matter in the end. We both know where economy is heading and knew it for the longer time.
The outlier in Claimant Count was due to a policy change. Starting in May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) began rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change means that more individuals are required to actively search for work to receive benefits, which likely leads to an increase in the number of claimants as more people are now classified under this condition.

This policy adjustment is expected to impact around 180,000 claimants over a six-month period, gradually increasing the Claimant Count as these changes take effect. Thus, the rise in the Claimant Count is significantly influenced by this administrative shift rather than a direct increase in unemployment or economic distress.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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