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Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?
In our 2024 Global Outlook we warned about the risk posed by an unwinding of the yen carry trade (borrowing at zero or very low interest rates in Japan and investing the proceeds in assets with higher expected returns) that shook global markets last week: "Decades of current account surpluses have accumulated, giving Japan the world's largest net international investment position (even more than China) with $3.3 trillion of investments held abroad according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although the U.S. has the largest economic influence in the world, Japan may have the largest influence in the asset ... (full story)