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Week Ahead: Price Action Might be More Important than Data, Barring US CPI Surprise
There is no need to debate whether it was tightening by the Bank of Japan or the fourth consecutive rise in the US unemployment rate that spurred the dramatic market reaction at the start of last week. It seems reasonable that both played a role. And the dramatic unwinding of short yen positions, which appeared to help fuel a recovery of the Swiss franc, Chinese yuan began before the Bank of Japan meeting and the US employment report. Moreover, on the eve of the July 31 BOJ and FOMC meetings, the derivatives market had two Fed rate cuts fully discounted and a little more than a 70% chance of a third cut this year. ... (full story)
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