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US soft landing not a long shot
After a steep stock market selloff and a U.S. unemployment rate that has supposedly triggered a recession signal, Loomis Sayles writes in its latest research note, that a soft landing for the world's largest economy is still a possibility. Since last Friday, everybody has been talking about a recession indicator, known as the Sahm rule, activated when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is at least half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low. The rule was named after ex-Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm and first introduced as part of a policy proposal in 2019. On Aug 2nd, the Bureau ... (full story)