Menu
Sister Sites

  • Claudia Sahm: "U.S. isn't in a recession, but is 'uncomfortably close"

    From msn.com

    Claudia Sahm, who developed the Sahm rule when she worked at the Federal Reserve, said on Monday that she doesn't think the U.S. is currently in a recession. Some economists contend that the jump in July's unemployment rate to 4.3% in Friday's jobs report triggered the Sahm rule, which suggests the economy is in or close to a recession when the unemployment rate's three-month average rises by half a percentage point from its low of the last year. But Sahm, who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors, said the rule wasn't meant to predict recessions. The idea of the rule is "to look at the historical ... (full story)

i guess UK and germany economy more stabil rather than other countries
Once the British people get themselves in order...GBP will resume its long trend. USD standby bearish is "Uncomfortably Close"...lol
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.249.94
When you’re forced to admit your own rule isn’t a rule.
Can no longer call it a rule if it’s parameter when met aren’t take seriously… it’s Kabuki theater!
Another verbal ejaculation Tuesday... nothing to see here
Sahm Rule: we compare the most recent three-month average unemployment rate with the lowest rate from the past 12 months.

1. Lowest unemployment rate in the past 12 months: 3.5% (in September 2023).
2. Three-month average unemployment rate:
- May 2024: 4.0%
- June 2024: 4.1%
- July 2024: 4.3%
The average of these three months is approximately 4.13%. Comparing this with the lowest rate of 3.5%:
4.13% - 3.5% = 0.63%.
In this case, the increase of 0.63% exceeds the 0.5% threshold, indicating a potential onset of a recession.
  • New Comment
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.9.170
Join FF
  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Aug 6, 2024 5:25am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 5  /  Views: 4,299

  • Related Stories