Traders price a 60% chance of a 25bps fed rate cut within one week

For me, that expectation is so incorrect, that it will only fuel more sell offs in risk, as reality sets in.

If they emergency cut, there will be a relief rally no doubt, but then further selling due to the fact that Central banks do not cut out of the goodness of their hearts, but they know that something is very wrong with the financial market and they have no choice.

Not gonna happen. Would be a major surprise. And if FED would go that way it would only confirm that the economy stinks even worse than expected.

And honestly, invstors should learn (the hard way) that investing comes with a risk. Thats why they make a risk premium compared to risk free money placement. Problem is that people think Tech and BTC is the holy grail. Its not. Happy I didnt buy into any of that.

Same. But wow, what a long wait.

From a high of over 160+, the JPYUSD has dropped to about 143+ now. It was not out of the blue. Data has been consistently showing the US economy is softening in recent months. The USD bulls have been persistent initially, buying into dips. The straw that finally broke the camel's back was the NFPayroll miss on 2 Aug. USDJPY has been in freefall since. So, is the correction 'enough'? Has the market already priced-in the coming Fed rate cut? The daily USDJPY chart has a 140.2 thereabout low in the most recent past. This will probably be the nearest support for the USDJPY. If it breaks that support, the next will be around 137.2. The USDJPY will probably settle between these 2 levels for the rest of the year unless there are more market moving events coming.

so essentially, long dollar crosses? thanks for the heads up LOL

Just a stop hunt on monday asian session. nothing new here

but sudnt dollar get strong if stocks are down, also the middle east tensions, i expected dollar to go up but it doesnt look like that.

Fed has done it before!

no cut rates until the end 2024

you are very much alone with that view