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  • Why Markets Got U.S. Payrolls Wrong

    From scotiabank.com

    Nonfarm payrolls disappointed expectations and increased by only 114k and the household survey registered just +67k. If that’s accurate, then it signals a sudden deceleration of job growth to a pace that lies beneath estimates of the required breakeven pace in relation to the pick-up in population growth. Markets reacted violently by pushing the S&P500 down 2½%, the two-year Treasury yield down by about 15bps, the dollar broadly weaker, oil prices sharply lower, and pricing for the FOMC’s September decision toward a 50bps cut. And yet we may have seen this movie before. Like a typical Disney flick, it’s ... (full story)

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Reviewing the trend of unemployment rate prints since Jan 8, 2021 (6.7%), we see a dip Feb 3, 2023 AND May 5, 2023 (3.4%) to an upward movement todays' (4.1%).

Given the recent Intel mass layoff announcement of 15,000 jobs, I would venture to guess this trend will continue upward, thereby solidifying the markets getting it right and a September cut very likely.
Institutions arguing other got ir wrong only try to talk their iwn book. Its been in the numbers for a long long time with morecand more part times etc.
Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is yet another bloated government department that fails daily with zero accountability. Everybody will be cashing their paychecks regardless of how bad they are at their job.

Like the Post Office
Like the Department of Education
Like the Secret Service

etc etc etc

When private sector entities repeatedly fail they go bankrupt. That's how free market capitalism works. When government grifters fail, they just keep getting paid by stealing more tax dollars from the working citizens.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
Quoting Expo33
Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is yet another bloated government department that fails daily with zero accountability. Everybody will be cashing their paychecks regardless of how bad they are at their job. Like the Post Office Like the Department of Education Like the Secret Service etc etc etc When private sector entities repeatedly fail they go bankrupt. That's how free market capitalism works. When government grifters fail, they just keep getting paid by stealing more tax dollars from the working citizens.
But thats jjust not true is it? how about all the bail out's in the financial sector? We should have let them go bust but the public paid for their many failures. And since the public licks the bill up every time they keep repeting.
Quoting Banditten
{quote} But thats jjust not true is it? how about all the bail out's in the financial sector? We should have let them go bust but the public paid for their many failures. And since the public licks the bill up every time they keep repeting.
That's true. The goverment does tend to bail out large banks and insurance companies deemed to big to fail.

If they let a multi billion dollar bank fail the government has to foot the bill anyways by paying out the customers deposits from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's 250K per account per customer so we are talking 100s of millions if not billions. Theoretically banks pay premiums that go into the FDIC coffers but everybody knows there isn't nearly enough money to pay up if the bank fails. At the end of the day the tax payers are going to pay either way.

But you make a good point. Government, banks, and insurance companies don't play by the same rules
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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