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  • Japan's new currency diplomat keeps intervention on table to stabilise yen

    From channelnewsasia.com

    Japan will retain its basic approach on the yen with intervention remaining an option to tackle excessively volatile moves in the exchange rate, the country's new top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura told Reuters. "Japan will act under internationally agreed commitments that exchange rates should be determined by markets, but that excessive volatility or disorderly movements can have an adverse impact on economic and financial stability," Mimura said in an interview on Tuesday. "It has been internationally agreed that measures including interventions are allowed when necessary," he added. Previously head of ... (full story)

So they know Ueda will fuck up tommorow. Up to 159-160 and go back to 150?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.10.215
JPY pairs will slowly lose the following as the uptrend is officially over and the tops are in.
Quoting Guest
JPY pairs will slowly lose the following as the uptrend is officially over and the tops are in.
But they don't trap anyone on the top. The move was emotionless and steady. No corner, no fun. They need to hit up one more time, then down.
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  • | IP XX.XXX.10.215
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} But they don't trap anyone on the top. The move was emotionless and steady. No corner, no fun. They need to hit up one more time, then down.
Did you know that JPY pairs have made their highs prior to 2008. also in July? There was range after the top was in, but the highs were set. Unfortunately, it is over. Retracement will come, but the pairs will be down 2000 pips before any significant retracement begins. USD/JPY is ready for 145, perhaps then.
Quoting Guest
{quote} Did you know that JPY pairs have made their highs prior to 2008. also in July? There was range after the top was in, but the highs were set. Unfortunately, it is over. Retracement will come, but the pairs will be down 2000 pips before any significant retracement begins. USD/JPY is ready for 145, perhaps then.
UEDA and BOJ are always dovish. He doesn't care about Yen, he looks only at inflation readings. And last inflation readings were slower than usual. They can't rise Interest Rates too high it will disrupt the economy. That's why they threat intervention again, course BOJ will do nothing as always. My bet.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.10.215
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} UEDA and BOJ are always dovish. He doesn't care about Yen, he looks only at inflation readings. And last inflation readings were slower than usual. They can't rise Interest Rates too high it will disrupt the economy. That's why they threat intervention again, course BOJ will do nothing as always. My bet.
We have to look beyond what is given to us. Market works in cycles. The current cycle was all about inflation and higher interest rates. Now, the cycle is changing and is now more about recession and low interest rates. The cycle we are entering now is the cycle you could have witnessed during 2008. Strong JPY is the game for the next couple of years. Sarcastically, the only intervention one will have to pay attention to from the BoJ is the one when JPY gets too strong. Ueda has done his part and is no longer important. Whether BoJ will hike or not has become irrelevant. Ueda cannot make any comment anymore that will put a stop to JPY. A new cycle has begun.
Quoting Guest
{quote} We have to look beyond what is given to us. Market works in cycles. The current cycle was all about inflation and higher interest rates. Now, the cycle is changing and is now more about recession and low interest rates. The cycle we are entering now is the cycle you could have witnessed during 2008. Strong JPY is the game for the next couple of years. Sarcastically, the only intervention one will have to pay attention to from the BoJ is the one when JPY gets too strong. Ueda has done his part and is no longer important. Whether BoJ will...
You might be right. But not before the big move up to trick everyone into buying. It has no value for market makers - everyone is in a sell position. Everyone belive in strong Yen. They need to reshake this thing before going down..it's not working the way you putting there.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.10.215
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} You might be right. But not before the big move up to trick everyone into buying. It has no value for market makers - everyone is in a sell position. Everyone belive in strong Yen. They need to reshake this thing before going down..it's not working the way you putting there.
True!

However, how many times did sellers already lost their account buying JPY and hoping the top is in? 5, 10, 20 times? USD/JPY was called the top at 145, then 150, then 152, then 160... won't even mention other pairs. CHF/JPY 180? GBP/JPY 208? I think a majority of retail traders already lost their money and others that didn't probably gave up.

If one even sold the top, one will probably not going to endure holding their position for too long as profit will grow and with that the fear of losing it.
Quoting Guest
{quote} True! However, how many times did sellers already lost their account buying JPY and hoping the top is in? 5, 10, 20 times? USD/JPY was called the top at 145, then 150, then 152, then 160... won't even mention other pairs. CHF/JPY 180? GBP/JPY 208? I think a majority of retail traders already lost their money and others that didn't probably gave up. If one even sold the top, one will probably not going to endure holding their position for too long as profit will grow and with that the fear of losing it.
Top has to have emotions involved. Last top was VERY steady and emotionless. Nobady was trapped, everybody expect Yen go down. It has to have spikes. I don't tell it will revisit top, but to do some kind of upmove to 157-159 before go to 145-140.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.10.215
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} Top has to have emotions involved. Last top was VERY steady and emotionless. Nobady was trapped, everybody expect Yen go down. It has to have spikes. I don't tell it will revisit top, but to do some kind of upmove to 157-159 before go to 145-140.
Of course, that is possible and probably what will happen. The highs are in though. Thing is, when the highs are in and people missed it, then people lose interest, so less and less retail will be buying JPY as the time goes on.
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