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The USD is at a Crossroads
The USD is currently influenced by two conflicting forces, each driving its path in different directions. On the positive side, the anticipation of a second presidential term for Donald Trump could lead to increased fiscal stimulus and new tariffs on US imports. This, in turn, could elevate US inflation, thereby boosting rates and yields. Conversely, on the negative side, market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have been growing due to recent weaker-than-expected US inflation and economic activity data. Presently, the latter force appears to dominate, reflecting its immediate impact with the first Fed ... (full story)