Canadian Core CPI Delivers Another Warning to the BoC

post: FED'S KUGLER: THE FED DOES NOT WANT THE LABOR MARKET TO COOL TOO MUCH. post: FED'S KUGLER: I AM WATCHING DATA INCREDIBLY CLOSE GIVEN IT CAN WEAKEN FAST.

Thank you for your generous introduction, Ellen. I am delighted to be here with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), and, in particular, I am pleased to be speaking at a conference covering an issue that is close to my heart and on which I have spent many years working: economic measurement. When Federal Reserve officials tell audiences that their judgments are data dependent, some skeptics perhaps presume that monetary policy is already on a path set in stone. But most in this room likely know what I mean when I talk about data dependence. I am a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which, of course, pursues a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.1 When I say I am data dependent, that means I am considering the totality of the data—the full range of economic indicators that provide a sense of where the labor market, economic activity, financial conditions, and inflation have been and where they might be going. Policymakers must have high-quality and accurate data to understand the economy and set the correct policy. The truth is that it is not just the Fed that needs data. Consumers, businesses, investors, and others have access to more information than ever before when making decisions. It is incumbent on economists, private- and public-sector data collectors, and others to ensure that available data are carefully collected, accurately measured, and clearly presented, and that data collection and measurement efforts are further enhanced and continue to improve. To be sure, data post: FED'S KUGLER: UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION, DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT HAVE BECOME MORE BALANCED post: FED'S KUGLER: IF LABOR MARKET COOLS TOO MUCH, IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO CUT INTEREST RATES 'SOONER RATHER THAN LATER' post: FED'S KUGLER: IF INCOMING DATA DON'T PROVIDE CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS MOVING TOWARD 2% TARGET, IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE TO HOLD RATES STEADY 'A LITTLE LONGER' post: FED'S KUGLER: INFLATION HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN, DESPITE 'A FEW BUMPS' AT START OF THIS YEAR