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  • US Producer Price Index - June 2024

    From bls.gov

    The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended March 2023. The June rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.6-percent increase in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.5 percent. Prices for ... (full story)

Added at 8:43am

  • US annual PPI inflation tops expectations, stocks fall

    From uk.investing.com

    S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell to premarket lows after the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which indicated a higher-than-anticipated increase in prices. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.0% year-over-year against an estimated 2.5%, and by 0.4% month-over-month compared to the 0.2% forecast. The data also showed that US producer prices in June increased by 0.2% month-over-month, which was above the expected 0.1% rise. This suggests that inflationary pressures remain persistent, as businesses are experiencing higher costs for ... (full story)

Mix data report from yesterday to today sell the dollar.
Hot . More inflation in the pipeline? Market reaction doesn't match the data that just dropped (including priors revised up).

PPI for final demand increased by 2.6% for the 12 months ended in June, the largest advance since moving up by 2.7% for the 12 months ended March 2023.

Moderate increases driven by the services sector.

Sectors like fuels and lubricants retailing, professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, and residential real estate loans saw price increases, indicating areas of inflationary pressure within the economy.

The intermediate demand index indicates mixed trends with processed goods prices declining and unprocessed goods prices rising.

Prices for final demand goods continue to decrease, mainly due to significant drops in energy prices.

The largest price drops were seen in gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, and residential natural gas, indicating significant volatility in these sectors.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
always buy gold .... next target 2431/2450/2468
Follow price direction
cpi down , but ppi up, i think it will gv good conditon for usa economy, central bank will hv room neither to keep rates or cut the rates interest.
CPI and PPI are up, yes?
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90% market expect fed will cut rate....well well...madket will be dissapointed...GOLD will lose its steam next week....xau to 2150 -2200 triple tops
Quoting Vancarbon
There's no controlling producer prices . Costs being passed on each and every month .
There's one way I can think of. Darn that pesky supply vs. demand curve! Economics was a terribly hard (sarcasm) course in high school, I know, but as I recall, if people buy less, the supply will eventually slow down. As the supply slows, the cost for the raw materials to produce those goods will decrease.

Of course, this is not so simple in the real world (and I have been as guilty as anyone in continuing the buying of goods this year more than last years). That was the concept behind raising rates though. Disincentivize people from purchasing things they cannot afford. Instead , however, most simply load up on credit card debt. To be fair, it's not that surprising, especially in this country.... After all, we tend to look to our elders for guidance, correct? What more of a common "elder" for most people in a country than their government?
Quoting BaliBoyz80
cpi down , but ppi up, i think it will gv good conditon for usa economy, central bank will hv room neither to keep rates or cut the rates interest.
Gold will drop next week to 2100-2200 next week ....too high expectation on fed cut (90 %) while gold is triple tops
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} If we run with the supply side theme and the presidential front runner who intends to disrupt the current supply chains ( China ) , for me this is either being completely overlooked ( purposely as not to cause waves in the market ) yet is an unavoidable fact . Trump will apply tariffs and try to break the supply chains . If the energy element can't be contained as it currently is , then we have a double whammy on the inflation front ahead .
Oh, don't get me wrong, I don't see the problem being resolved any time soon (regardless of who becomes the next US President), I was just pontificating as to whether it is theoretically possible to realistically address the price of goods. The practical answer is probably "no", they aren't going down [ever]. The bigger question is: what rate of increase is acceptable/tolerable to the global economy(ies)?
It's best to pay attention to geopolitical issues.... The President of Ukraine is asking the US to attack Russian facilities on Russian territory
Follow price direction
“Friday’s stronger-than-expected PPI is an important reminder that inflation is still here and that the inflation data can be volatile,” Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “While Friday’s strong PPI comes after Thursday’s weak CPI print, the Federal Reserve is data dependent and will be examining each inflation data point before deciding whether or not to cut interest rates.”

Despite the stronger-than-expected PPI number, Bellin said he believes rate cuts are still on the table for September.
Quoting hesron
It's best to pay attention to geopolitical issues.... The President of Ukraine is asking the US to attack Russian facilities on Russian territory
That will never happen. Biden will keep feeding contracts to the weapons makers and keep sending cash to Zelensky.

Biden, the government grifters, and Zelensky will continue to enrich their families while innocent people continue to die.

There is no end game from this admistration. The only thing Biden can do is soil his diapers, drool on himself, and funnel money into his shell companies.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
Quoting hesron
It's best to pay attention to geopolitical issues.... The President of Ukraine is asking the US to attack Russian facilities on Russian territory
I think there may be a little language discrepancy here and what you wrote is not what you meant.

As written, you are suggesting Ukraine is asking the US military to attack Russia. What you likely MEANT was that Ukraine was asking the US to give Ukraine weapons that would enable UKRAINE to attack farther inside Russia.

For what it's worth, President Biden said this would not be happening during his press conference yesterday.
Quoting Vancarbon
If you cut rates into rising producer prices you increase consumer spending power. This then feeds back into the supply/demand side and increases producer prices and consumer prices even more as retailers look to offset costs and increase margins , hence having a knock on effect to both CPI and PPI levels. The cpi and ppi really should be running in conjunction or at least coming into alignment , which they clearly aren’t, as can be seen by the distortion in the ppi numbers on a monthly basis. The Fed is running the gauntlet if it even contemplates...
Well stated. This is why the equity markets continued their march higher today (without quite getting those entry levels we discussed previously). After CPI, a July cut ticked up a little. After PPI, that uptick is gone.

What IS seen, is at least one of the 2 is starting to shave off a little aggression. If the other (PPI) can also come in a bit next month, then we put the 5~10% equity retracement back on the table.
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I’m thinking the next retracement is the the 30% one to bring the moving averages back to equilibrium and some value to the market. Everything, including the kitchen sink is being ploughed in at these extremely overvalued/overbought levels. I appreciate it’s all relative , depending upon the individuals timeframe for investing , that doesn’t detract that the current levels are indicating correction ahead
Well, today's retracement (in the nasdaq anyway) occurred almost exactly at the 61.8% fib retracement of the CPI highs to PPI lows).....technical analysis is fun for scalping :-P I certainly didn't anticipate the extent of the pullback at the end of the day though so profits were limited. Regardless, that was a hefty drawdown despite the day being green overall for equities.

Expiration next week + political conventions to add some volatility. After that, earnings will start to shed some light on the subsequent 1-2 months of direction. Earnings have been driving things higher each quarter thus far, BUT, as you state, at these levels, can we really expect things to jump up yet again??
always buy gold .... next target 2431/2450/2468
Herson very well predict gold n ur level n target very well n hit all level n all target
What about ur next gold level n target
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