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  • The US Employment Situation -- June 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the ... (full story)

Added at 8:38am

  • June jobs report: US labor market adds 206,000 jobs, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

    From finance.yahoo.com

    The US labor market added more jobs than expected in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, reaching its highest level since November 2021 in another sign the job market continues to cool. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, more additions than the 190,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, up from 4% the month prior. June's job additions showed a decline from the 218,000 jobs added in May, which were revised lower from a previous reading of 272,000 jobs gained. Here are the key numbers ... (full story)

sell USD .... same like NFP last month
Follow price direction
strong sell on usd. unemployment rate finally creeped up to above 4% as per J Powell's threshold
no doubt this fits into financial models well

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from
+165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to
+218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than
previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from
businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the
recalculation of seasonal factors.)"
Quoting blip
strong sell on usd. unemployment rate finally creeped up to above 4% as per J Powell's threshold
The lingering question is if it's enough since the massive labour imports of late.
Holy shit that downward revision is crazy and +75k government jobs, US is at standstill officially.

May revised down
April revised down

Total jobs revised on those months -100k

Part time jobs added 50k... yeah this is a disaster.
Unemployment increased, Hourly Income Decreased & NFP data also decreased. Biggest sell anticipated on USDJPY.
still dovish ..... no cut rate until end 2024
Follow price direction
buy gold ... bulls big traders target 2392.30
Follow price direction
Weak. Those sneaky downward revisions.


Government added 70,000 jobs, significantly higher than the monthly average of 49,000.

Health care increased by 49,000 jobs, notably in ambulatory health care services (+22,000) and hospitals (+22,000).

Social Assistance increased by 34,000 jobs, primarily in individual and family services.

Average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents to $35.00, with a 3.9% rise over the past 12 months.


April employment change revised down by 57,000 to +165,000. May employment change revised down by 54,000 to +218,000.

Professional and Business Services declined by 17,000 jobs, including a notable drop in temporary help services (-49,000).

Retail Trade declined by 9,000 jobs after previous gains.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.3%
The N.F.P data probably is making fed uncomfortable right now.
When the retail thinks it’s a SELL on USD, the market moves the other way.
What a trend! More jobs were actually created but unemployment rate didn't reduce. How come?
retail sentiment market
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: retail sentiment qtc214.png Size: 29 KB

if price down big traders in risk
Isn't the principle of smart money to seek maximum profits by transferring risk to weaker market players?
because 80% of the weakest market players in the market feel they can beat smart money in their trading career through emotions and irrational expectations.
Follow price direction
Quoting Lekeman
What a trend! More jobs were actually created but unemployment rate didn't reduce. How come?
Immigration.
Yet another new all-time high on the Nasdaq. This party train continues
Quoting MatTrader101
Holy shit that downward revision is crazy and +75k government jobs, US is at standstill officially. May revised down April revised down Total jobs revised on those months -100k Part time jobs added 50k... yeah this is a disaster.
Yes. Long term existing FED rate weakens the labor market like a melting ice. The number of Unemployment is increasing. The existing fed rate and rising wages is weakening the company/institution foundation resulting rising uneployment
+200,000 jobs = economy performing well.
Unemployment rate rises to 4.1% = pressure on wage levels = economy performing well and reduced inflation.
Sell Usd against what?
Chf? No, that's down since January
Yen? No. That's a raging carry trade.
Cad? No change since January
Eur? No change since January

So, you Usd sellers, sell against what?
Wonder how long this can continue...? Election?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:4f71:3923
Quoting medvic
Wonder how long this can continue...? Election?
peel the onion a little, breh. the headline number is a mirage. first, the significant downward revisions in previous months very likely means this report will also be revised down. next, the vast majority of the jobs gained are in government and healthcare; neither category contains the highest earners who have been powering this economy. worse yet, the category that does contain these workers, professional services, is actually in the negative. retail, which is a proxy for 70% of spending, also contacted. this is not a good report.
Quoting hesron
retail sentiment market {image} if price down big traders in risk Isn't the principle of smart money to seek maximum profits by transferring risk to weaker market players? because 80% of the weakest market players in the market feel they can beat smart money in their trading career through emotions and irrational expectations.
which website shows all of them together?
Quoting Guest
{quote}peel the onion a little, breh. the headline number is a mirage. first, the significant downward revisions in previous months very likely means this report will also be revised down. next, the vast majority of the jobs gained are in government and healthcare; neither category contains the highest earners who have been powering this economy. worse yet, the category that does contain these workers, professional services, is actually in the negative. retail, which is a proxy for 70% of spending, also contacted. this is not a good report.
Depends on your definition of "good" I guess. It, in a welcomed way, shows a slowing of the labor market which, in turn, means the fed can be more comfortable lowering rates in a timely (2024?) fashion vs. mid-late 2025 as some feared. That is "good" for the US equity markets (until the cut actually happens) and "good" for those who aren't hyper-long the dollar (reducing the expected longevity of carry trades, etc).

Now, it may not be so good for those looking to find high-paying jobs. Nor would these numbers be seen as "good" by an incumbent politician (either white house or more localized government) if the affected voters were looking for job expansion as a reason to vote for them.

For everyone else, it could begin to mean businesses don't need to pay as much in salary increases annually, which sounds bad, but also means the price of goods doesn't need to increase as much either. So, if you don't get that raise, but you don't have to pay as much as you otherwise would have had to for the stuff you buy, maybe it is a wash?

Either way, the narrative since the rate hikes has been consistent: need to see a path toward 2% inflation and a cool down in various key sectors to build confidence in the economic stability before rate cuts can occur. Perhaps we are finally seeing that data emerge.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.223.24
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Depends on your definition of "good" I guess. It, in a welcomed way, shows a slowing of the labor market which, in turn, means the fed can be more comfortable lowering rates in a timely (2024?) fashion vs. mid-late 2025 as some feared. That is "good" for the US equity markets (until the cut actually happens) and "good" for those who aren't hyper-long the dollar (reducing the expected longevity of carry trades, etc). Now, it may not be so good for those looking to find high-paying jobs. Nor would these numbers...
the evolution of the data is not great, however. if this is the start of a trend, then this is bad. trends tend to, you know, trend… so, this could be just the start. however, if things stabilize around the current levels without much acceleration in either direction, that would be good. so, the jury is out.. other data, though, is accelerating to a sharper contraction.
Quoting MaxMcLintock
+200,000 jobs = economy performing well. Unemployment rate rises to 4.1% = pressure on wage levels = economy performing well and reduced inflation. Sell Usd against what? Chf? No, that's down since January Yen? No. That's a raging carry trade. Cad? No change since January Eur? No change since January So, you Usd sellers, sell against what?
I would like to go down the rabbit hole of that raging carry trade
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:15e:98
Quoting Vancarbon
Anyone else think this gender thing has gone too far now ? I didn’t even know Biden had transitioned. In a radio interview, Mr Biden said he was proud to be the “first black woman to serve with a black president”.
Even if this is true, market participants have deemed the current value to be a fair value. There we clearly more buyers than sellers and up to goes. It has to get to grossly exuberant before it begins to correct. It has a way to go yet.
Crucial decision is ahead
Quoting rehmatkhan00
{quote} which website shows all of them together?

https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio
thanks brother.
It's a big game
It's a big game.
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.97.138
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