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  • Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 11–12, 2024

    From federalreserve.gov Story is in PDF Format

    The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets. Financial conditions eased modestly over the intermeeting period mainly because of higher equity prices. Taking a somewhat longer perspective, the manager noted that financial conditions had changed little since March but eased notably since the fall. The main drivers of that easing were again higher equity prices, which appeared to respond to the reductions in the perceived odds of a recession, and a consensus among market participants that the federal funds rate has reached its peak. Nominal Treasury yields declined moderately across the ... (full story)

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No nothing happens on Fomc Minutes!!!!
Quoting Dr.Zain
No nothing happens on Fomc Minutes!!!!
Because they have been saying the same shit from eternity
USD retracement time
just take a look at sp500 p/e .
they can not be dovish.
thats how it works.
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Not just the SP . Look at the Nasdaq! It’s almost a ponzi ! How far can you push trillion dollar companies on multiples beyond the realms of imagination. Lower earnings, lower revenues yet the share price increases because of the incentives involved. It’s becoming something out of a sci-fi movie. The correction in the US is going to be massive.
Please, give an example for lower revenues, lower profit or lower guidance for someone of 'magnificent 7'.
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Not just the SP . Look at the Nasdaq! It’s almost a ponzi ! How far can you push trillion dollar companies on multiples beyond the realms of imagination. Lower earnings, lower revenues yet the share price increases because of the incentives involved. It’s becoming something out of a sci-fi movie. The correction in the US is going to be massive.
Haha. Well, bubbles happen. AI will likely drive the next round. That said, the future potential (perceived or otherwise) of the technology's impact is akin to the early adoption of the internet (as opposed to dot com era). No one REALLY knows how far this can go. As such, the market....via the handful of stocks that drive the industry...will continue to march upward.

To my dismay (though it should not be to my surprise), however, is that small caps (/rty futures contract) are still 20% off all time highs and only up 1% this year. It's been a great time to ride tech. When you have multiple individual single company's with market caps larger than the entire Russell 2000 index, it is certainly interesting.

Big corrections can happen in one-off situations during a secular bull market too though (just look at the NVDA post-split pop and drop: $141 down to $115 if you include after hours). That's around 650 billion in market cap evaporating in 48 hours. Poof, gone!

It's going to be an interesting ride for the rest of the year though, that's for sure. Personally, I would like to see some shift from the /nq to /rty. Not lowering the /nq significantly, simply stretching the current levels out in time a bit while the /rty can catch up a bit. But let's face it, Elf Beauty and Coca Cola just aren't as sexy as nVidia :-)
this is what i call a price and sentiment (on the street; main street i guess) divergence
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