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Soft US manufacturing and construction numbers emphasise the dependency on services
Today's US data has come in on the softer side of expectations with the June ISM manufacturing index dipping to 48.5 from 48.7. The consensus was looking for a modest recovery to 49.1. This is the 19th sub-50 reading, thereby indicating contraction in the past 20 months, with only March breaking the trend with a 50.3 print. The chart below shows that the ISM indices used to be an excellent lead indicator for judging turning points in the economic cycle, but for now, the economy continues to perform strongly despite the apparent softness in the surveys. The details show production dropped to 48.5 from 50.2 (6M avg of ... (full story)