EIA: US natural gas inventories up by 52 Bcf

Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and ...

post: *FED'S BOSTIC REITERATES HE EXPECTS 1 RATE CUT THIS YEAR, IN Q4 *BOSTIC: BREADTH OF PRICE INCREASES HAS FALLEN, A PROMISING SIGN *BOSTIC: EXPECT INFLATION TO FALL TO 2% IN 2025, PERHAPS LATER post: FED'S BOSTIC: I PENCILED IN FOUR QUARTER-PERCENTAGE-POINT RATE CUTS FOR 2025, THE FED IS ON A LONG TERM ARC.Bostic: Renewed Hope on Inflation but More Confidence Needed Since my last essay in March, the economy and labor markets have continued to expand in healthy fashion. But the outlook concerning the most pressing issue of the day—inflation—has taken a subtle turn. First, let me offer a quick recap. During 2023, the inflation rate fell by more than half—from well above 5 percent to below 3 percent, per the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) preferred gauge. That was a much steeper decline than my staff and I and most observers expected. However, that progress slowed considerably early this year, with some suggesting that the decline may have stalled out entirely. Well, the most recent inflation reports offer signals that push against the "stalling out" narrative. The April reports for the consumer and PCE price indexes presented a picture of inflation that was more consistent with the data received in the second half of 2023 than what we saw in the first months of 2024. In April, the headline year-over-year PCE reading of 2.7 percent was the same as the November 2023 reading. Though the April PCE inflation reading was unchanged from five months earlier, mining the details of the inflation reports reveals a few promising signals. One I pay close attention to is the breadth of price changes—specifically, the percentage of individual goods and services prices in the consumer price index that rose more than 5 percent. That portion came in at 18 percent in May, and the three-month average has dipped to 35 percent, a level not seen since the summer of 2023, when overall inflation was steeply declining. Still, that 35 percent figure is higher than a level that is consistent with pr