EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to once again join the Global Interdependence Center. It is also my pleasure to welcome Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf to the Philadelphia Fed. And in doing so, I must acknowledge the figure who stands central in the histories of the central banks in both of our respective countries — the economist Henry Parker Willis. Parker Willis was one of the main architects of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, and subsequently served as both the first secretary of the Federal Reserve Board as well as the Federal Reserve System’s director of research from 1918 to 1922. And, in 1926, as the then four-year-old Irish Free State grappled with the question of how to set up its own independent currency system, it enlisted Henry Parker Willis to lead this effort. His experiences and expertise directly influenced the Irish Currency Act of 1927. post: FED’S HARKER: IF MY ECONOMIC FORECAST PLAYS OUT, I THINK ONE RATE CUT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BY YEAR’S END HARKER: TWO CUTS OR NONE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE, DEPENDS ON DATA HARKER: KEEPING RATES WHERE THEY ARE FOR A BIT LONGER WILL HELP GET INFLATION DOWN AND MITIGATE UPSIDE RISKS post: HARKER: LAST WEEK’S CPI DATA VERY WELCOME, BUT OVERALL PROGRESS ON INFLATION IN RECENT MONTHS HAS BEEN MODEST HARKER: LONG-TERM STUBBORNNESS OF SHELTER INFLATION REMAINS A CONCERN, AS DOES SERVICE SECTOR INFLATION