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  • US jobs growth beats all expectations

    From think.ing.com

    US May non-farm payrolls came in at 272k versus the 180k consensus and higher than any of the 77 forecasts submitted to Bloomberg – the range was 120-258k. Private payrolls rose 229k versus the 165k consensus expectation. There were 15k of downward revisions to the past 2 months for headline payrolls, but this is still an undeniably strong set of numbers that has seen market interest rate cut expectations reduce significantly. The gains were once again led by the usual suspects of private education & health services (+86k), leisure & hospitality (+42k) and government (43k). Average hourly earnings rose ... (full story)

"However, the jobs report is made up of two surveys. The Establishment survey of businesses gives us the payrolls' number, but the household survey is conducted separately and is used to generate the unemployment rate. That hit 4% for the first time since January 2022 from 3.9% last month and a low of 3.4% in April 2023. Moreover, it reported households as saying employment actually fell 408,000 with unemployment rising 157k and the labour force shrinking 250k. This paints a much weaker picture."

Very interesting.
Student of the Markets
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Plus , look at all the part-time jobs. Weaker than the headline indeed.
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