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U.S. CMBS Loan Delinquency Forecast Revised Down; Refinance Rates to Worsen
Commercial real estate (CRE) loan refinancing activity was better than anticipated in the first five months of 2024, driven by outperformance of retail loans secured by anchored and shadow-anchored properties and conduit multifamily loans, Fitch Ratings says in its U.S. CRE Loan Refinancing and Delinquency Forecast – 1H24 report. This, combined with an improved U.S. macro-credit outlook and our expectations for increased new issuance, has led to a downward revision of our U.S. CMBS loan delinquency forecast, to 3.7% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, respectively, from 4.5% and 4.9% at the start of 2024. Delinquencies, ... (full story)