Summary of Governing Council deliberations

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 19–20, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’24: 4.6% [Prev. 4.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’25: 3.9% [Prev. 3.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’26: 3.1% [Prev. 2.9%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast Longer-Run: 2.6% [Prev. 2.5%] post: Fed Officials See 2.4% Inflation at End of 2024, 2.2% at End of 2025, 2.0% at End of 2026 Fed Officials See 2.6% Core Inflation at End of 2024, 2.2% at End of 2025, 2.0% at End of 2026 Fed Officials See 4% Unemployment at End of 2024, 4.1% at End of 2025, 4% at End of 2026 post: FED DOT PLOT pic.twitter.com/nV5pMixo9j post: <=USD>:FED POLICYMAKERS UPGRADE 2024 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.1% FROM 1.4%, SEE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 4.0% VS 4.1% IN DEC. PROJECTION

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of post: FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/efreEDijYe