Will Fed Fuel Dollar Breakout?

post: ECB'S DE COS: STRONGER THAN EXPECTED MONETARY POLICY IMPACT IS A DOWNSIDE RISK TO THE EURO AREA GROWTH OUTLOOK. post: ECB'S DE COS: THE TRANSMISSION ON FINANCING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN FORCEFUL. post: ECB'S DE COS: RISKS TO THE INFLATION OUTLOOK ARE BALANCED.

post: ECB'S SCHNABEL: WE MAY NOW BE FACING A TURNING POINT IN REAL INTEREST RATES. post: ECB'S SCHNABEL: THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS AND COMMUNICATION MAY BE STRONGER THAN CONVENTIONALLY ASSUMEDSchnabel: R(ising) star? Over the past two years, we have seen a measurable and persistent rise in real interest rates across many advanced economies, partly reversing the secular decline that started in the early 1980s. This increase in real rates has reignited the debate among academics and policymakers about the level of the natural rate of interest, or r*, the real short-term interest rate that would prevail if the economy was operating at its potential and inflation was at target. The question is whether the recent reversal is a sign that real interest rates will remain higher once the impact of recent shocks has faded, or whether they will return to the lows seen in the pre-pandemic era. In my remarks today, I will discuss two hypotheses that can help explain the fall and rise in real interest rates.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 116.2 (2016=100), after a 0.4 percent increase in December 2023. ...