Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China dipped by 0.3 percent in November 2023 to 152.3 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2 percent in October. The LEI fell by 1.7 percent from May to November of 2023, a slightly larger rate of contraction following a 1.6 percent drop over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China also declined by 0.3 percent in November 2023 to 144.9 (2016=100), partially reversing a 0.7 percent increase in October. Despite the month-over-month decline, the CEI grew by 3.7 percent in the six-month period between May and November of 2023, materially faster than the 2.6 percent growth rate between November 2022 and May of 2023.

“The LEI for China fell again,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The decline was fueled by non-financial components: the consumer expectations index was the largest negative contributor, followed by the PMI: Manufacturing: New Export Orders, the Logistics Prosperity Index, and machinery and transport equipment imports. Negative leading index readings, on both an annual and semi-annual basis, suggest a challenging economic environment ahead. The Conference Board predicts that China’s real GDP will grow at a pace of 5.2 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will slow to 4.1 percent year-over-year in 2024.”

The China LEI continued to decline in November

Most of the China LEI components fell in the month

The LEI continues to signal challenges for the economy ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

Most of the China LEI components fell in the month