Press release No. 465 of 7 December 2023
Production in industry
October 2023 (in real terms, provisional):
-0.4% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.5% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
September 2023 (in real terms, revised):
-1.3% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.6% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – Production in industry in real terms (price adjusted) was down 0.4% in October 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional data provided by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Production therefore decreased for the fifth month in succession. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 1.9% lower in the period from August to October 2023 than in the previous three months. After revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 1.3% in September 2023 compared with August 2023 (provisional figure: -1.4%).
The decline observed in October 2023 is largely attributable to the performance of the “manufacture of machinery and equipment” sector. Production in this sector was down 6.3% month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment. In September 2023 it had increased by 3.9% on the previous month. However, production also declined in many other economic sectors in October 2023, including construction. By contrast, production in the automotive sector increased and had a slightly positive impact on overall results (+0.7%).
In October 2023, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down 0.5% from September 2023 after seasonal and calendar adjustment. The production of capital goods decreased by 1.0% and that of intermediate goods by 0.4%. By contrast, the production of consumer goods rose by 0.4%. Outside industry, a 7.1% increase in energy production was observed in October 2023. Production in construction dropped by 2.2% from the previous month.
Compared with October 2022, production in industry was down 3.5% in October 2023 after adjustment for calendar effects. Production in industry excluding energy and construction decreased by 3.4% over the same period.
Production down in energy-intensive industrial branches
Production in energy-intensive industrial branches declined by 1.4% in October 2023 from September 2023, after elimination of seasonal and calendar effects. The three-month on three-month comparison showed that production in these industrial branches was 0.9% lower in the period from August to October 2023 than in the previous three months. Compared with October 2022, production in energy-intensive industrial branches was down 7.1% in October 2023. An analysis on the production index for energy-intensive industrial branches (in German only) is available on the “Industry, manufacturing” page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.
The rates of change are based on the production index for industry. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.
The five branches referred to here as “energy-intensive” have particularly high energy demands in relation to their gross value added. In the reference year of 2021, they collectively accounted for 77% of total industrial energy consumption. Their proportion of industrial gross value added stood at 17%. In 2021, just under one million people (929,599) were employed in the 6,986 industrial establishments of these branches in Germany.
More information:
Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry can be found in the table Indices of production in manufacturing (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database. It contains the time series of the production index for energy-intensive industrial branchesfrom 2005 onwards.
A dossier on the “Short-term indicators” page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (in German only) is available on the “Industry, manufacturing” page.
The production index is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (in German only). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (in German only) for real-time economic monitoring.
