Informations Rapides · 30 November 2023 · n° 301

In Q3 2023, GDP fell slightly (-0.1%), as did household purchasing power (-0.2% per consumption unit). Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - third quarter 2023

In the third quarter of 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised to -0.1% in volumes terms.

The purchasing power of households gross disposable income (GDI) per consumption unit fell slightly (-0.2%) after remaining stable in the previous quarter. The household saving rate fell this quarter to 17.4% of GDI, after 17.9% in the previous quarter.

The profit margin of non-financial corporations was virtually stable at 33.0% of their value added, after 33.1% in the second quarter.

The general government borrowing requirement increased by 0.4 points of GDP to 4.8% of GDP.

In the third quarter of 2023, quarter-on-quarter real GDP in volume* fell by 0.1%, after rising significantly in the previous quarter (+0.6%). Household consumption rebounded this quarter (+0.6% after -0.1%), driven by an increase in consumption of goods (+0.6% after -0.6%), particularly of food (+0.3% after -1.7%) and manufactured goods (+1.0% after 0.0%), while spending on energy remained sluggish (+0.2% after +0.1%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed down (+0.2% in the third quarter after +0.5% in the second), due in particular to the further decline in GFCF in construction (-0.8% after -0.2%). By institutional sector, household GFCF continued to fall (-1.1% after -1.3%), while that of non-financial corporations slowed (+0.5% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories made a positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter (+0.5 points after +0.1 points).

Exports fell sharply (-1.0% after +2.5%), driven by transport equipment and transport services. Imports were virtually stable (+0.1% after +2.4%). Overall, foreign trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth for the third quarter (-0.4 points after 0.0 points).

Finally, changes in inventories made a negative contribution to GDP growth this quarter (-0.2 points after +0.5 points in the second quarter of 2023).

_{* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).}

Household gross disposable income (GDI) in current euros rose by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2023, after +1.5% in the previous quarter. The wage bill received by households rose by 0.8%, as in the previous quarter. Payroll employment stabilised, while average wages per head accelerated slightly this quarter (+0.8% after +0.7%): they slowed in the private sector but rebounded sharply in the public sector as a result of the index point revaluation in July. Social benefits in cash accelerated moderately (+0.6% after +0.2%). Social security and tax deductions rebounded this quarter (+0.9% after -0.6%).

At the same time, the price of household consumption slowed (+1.0% after +1.4%), but remained dynamic, a little more than household GDI in current euros (+0.9%). As a result, the purchasing power of household GDI fell slightly in the third quarter (-0.1% after +0.1%). Measured per consumption unit, in order to bring it down to an individual level, it fell slightly (-0.2% after 0.0%).

As household consumption increased in volume terms, despite the slight fall in purchasing power, the household saving rate decreased this quarter: it stood at 17.4%, after 17.9% in the second quarter of 2023. However, it remained more than 2 points higher than its average level in 2019.

The total number of hours worked increased slightly in the third quarter of 2023 (+0.1% after +0.5%). Total employment slowed (+0.1%, after +0.3% in the previous quarter), while the number of hours worked per job stabilised (0.0% after +0.2% in the second quarter).

In the third quarter of 2023, the profit margin of non-financial corporations was almost stable, at 33.0% after 33.1%. The effects of the fall in productivity and the fall in real labour costs offsetted each other.

In the third quarter of 2023, the general government deficit widened by 0.4 points of GDP. It stood at 4.8% of GDP, after 4.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Public spending rebounded (+0.5% after -0.1%), while public revenue fell again (-0.1% after -0.4%). On the expenditure side, operating expenses accelerated with the revaluation of the index point, while the fall in subsidy payments subsided. The fall in revenue was due to lower income tax, particularly corporation tax.

GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 has been revised downwards by 0.2 points to -0.1%, compared with the first estimate of +0.1%. GFCF has been revised significantly downwards and consumption slightly downwards, so that the contribution of final domestic demand to growth has been revised downwards by 0.2 points to +0.5 points (compared with +0.7 points in the first estimate).

In addition, imports have been revised upwards more strongly than exports, establishing the contribution of foreign trade to quarterly GDP growth at -0.4 points compared with -0.3 points in the first estimate. These revisions were partly counterbalanced by the upward revision in the contribution from changes in inventories.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, notably the September turnover indices, which are significantly lower than the extrapolations they replaced. The seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have also been updated.

In addition, the household saving rate in the first half of 2023 has been revised downwards significantly since the publication of the Detailed figures for the second quarter of 2023, by -0.5 points in the first quarter of 2023, and by -0.9 points in the second quarter of 2023. This revision is mainly due to the upward revision of food consumption as a result of a change in methodology made at the time of the previous publication (first estimate for the third quarter of 2023).