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SEC Delays… Again
Bitcoin prices surged higher once again yesterday with BTC futures rallying almost 10% off the week’s lows yesterday. The move came amidst news that the SEC has deferred ruling on the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF until 2024, having made a similar ruling on other crypto ETF applications. Judging by the market reaction it seems the interpretation is that a delay isn’t a rejection and so optimism remains intact, keeping BTC supported for now though we are seeing some unwinding today.
US Inflation Plunges
Earlier this week, a sharp drop in US inflation saw traders quickly repricing their Fed rates outlook. With inflation now at 3.2% from 3.7% prior, falling steadily, traders sense the Fed is done tightening this cycle. Focus is now shifting onto anticipating the first Fed rate cut, currently pegged for May 1st. While this narrative holds, BTC looks likely to continue further near-term amidst the broad uptick in risk assets.
US Data & Fed Speak
Looking through the end of the week, focus over the coming sessions will be on the remaining US data due (unemployment claims, Philly Fed) and a slew of Fed commentary. Given that Fed sentiment remains quite mixed, hawkish comments might act as a barrier near-term though if we see any dovish shift on the back of this week’s inflation data this should help BTC higher into the end of the week.
Technical Views
BTC
The rally in BTC has seen the market breaking back above the 37030 level, once again testing the bull channel highs. Bearish divergence in momentum studies calls for caution around current level with risks of a pull back growing. While 34755 holds as support, however, focus is on a further push higher towards 39860 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.