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  • The Employment Situation -- October 2023

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical ... (full story)

Added at 8:36am

  • U.S. payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, less than expected

    From cnbc.com

    The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for an increase of 170,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, against expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings, a key measure for inflation, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% forecast, while the 4.1% year over year again was 0.1 percentage point above ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:33am Nov 3, 2023 8:33am
what .... why so bad ...... OMG
Follow price direction
  • #2
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:35am Nov 3, 2023 8:35am
  •  Trader#CE72
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
LAst month adjusted down from 336K to 297K... not a surprise
  • #3
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:38am Nov 3, 2023 8:38am
150k is not bad number, also with avarage earning.
  • #4
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:40am Nov 3, 2023 8:40am
Shock horror, previous NFP revised down, horrible number this time around, which will be revised lower next month...

Wages down, unemployment up, and participation down. We are in for a treat from the US.
  • #5
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:40am Nov 3, 2023 8:40am
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Follow price direction
  • #6
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:42am Nov 3, 2023 8:42am
Hmmm omg my money
  • #7
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:43am Nov 3, 2023 8:43am
Perfect scenario to crush USD/JPY by Bank of Japan. Their last chance. Do they have guts? No.
  • #8
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:45am Nov 3, 2023 8:45am
Quoting swing77
Hmmm omg my money
#CL . let's play on crypto party
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  • #9
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:46am Nov 3, 2023 8:46am
  •  Trader#7227
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Why should this number worry the FED or prevent Powell from raising rates? This trend of higher unemployment is part of their forecast. They expect unemployment to rise and economic activity to slow to tame inflation.
Real risk is they are too lenient in raising, and they will have to catch up when inflation rises again Arthur Burns style. After all PCE headline and core is at best stable, if not rising already.
If the task of taming inflation is left to bond vigilantes, they will do it, erring on the wrong side, i.e. wreaking havoc
  • #10
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:46am Nov 3, 2023 8:46am
Quoting BaliBoyz80
150k is not bad number, also with avarage earning.
Half of the previous month and unemployment increased highly
  • #11
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:46am Nov 3, 2023 8:46am
Economy meltdown in the next year, they can only try to hide it for so long.
  • #12
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:49am Nov 3, 2023 8:49am
Only in the US do they celebrate a recession

Inflation hasn’t budged

A recession will crush earnings

The Fed can’t reduce interest rates

Got to love the logic
  • #13
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:54am Nov 3, 2023 8:54am
goodbye to usd
  • #14
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:57am Nov 3, 2023 8:57am
Quoting Vancarbon
Only in the US do they celebrate a recession Inflation hasn’t budged A recession will crush earnings The Fed can’t reduce interest rates Got to love the logic
Yeah unfortunately most donkeys don't understand the macro that we literally have Stagflation in the US, the economy is weakening, whilst Inflation is going up again. But there you go, the market is usually more irrational than people can stay solvent for.
  • #15
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  • Nov 3, 2023 8:57am Nov 3, 2023 8:57am
Finally a real reading
  • #16
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:08am Nov 3, 2023 9:08am
Love the move of eurusd. 50 pips....hope all you guys get the green. Enjoy the weekend haha
  • #17
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:11am Nov 3, 2023 9:11am
Seems like FED reached a point where rates are high enough to slow economy. They will keep it there until sufficiently weakness shows. But no need to jike from here. EU is frontrunner and will reduce rates before FED. My 5 cent from todays reading.
  • #18
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:13am Nov 3, 2023 9:13am
Gold long
  • #19
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:14am Nov 3, 2023 9:14am
ISM Services PMI
one more use! eurusd target 1.0765
  • #20
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:43am Nov 3, 2023 9:43am
Quoting swing77
{quote} #CL . let's play on crypto party {image}
i love it friday
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  • #21
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:44am Nov 3, 2023 9:44am
Sigh , done did us an okie doke this month. The previous reading this week was closer as last month it was waaaay off. Darn!
  • #22
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  • Nov 3, 2023 9:45am Nov 3, 2023 9:45am
Rates higher for longer is actually considerably worse for the market than a rate increase.

The Feds hands are tied. The 2% target they often refer to isn’t achievable when inflation is running so hot.

The only way the Fed can even try to control inflation is a recession

Geopolitics isn’t going anywhere at the moment and this volatility in the market should have participants very wary
  • #23
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  • Nov 3, 2023 10:17am Nov 3, 2023 10:17am
USD/JPY RSI & MACD DI Chart is the curving start. If today's D1 candle is completely negative. Bearish will be start for a long
  • #24
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  • Nov 3, 2023 10:38am Nov 3, 2023 10:38am
Quoting Vancarbon
Rates higher for longer is actually considerably worse for the market than a rate increase. The Feds hands are tied. The 2% target they often refer to isn’t achievable when inflation is running so hot. The only way the Fed can even try to control inflation is a recession Geopolitics isn’t going anywhere at the moment and this volatility in the market should have participants very wary
Agreed I did say this about 2 months ago... the FED is officially out of Ammo, the further increase rates = we will have the next great DEPRESSION, they keep it higher for longer... we have the next great DEPRESSION, they do rate cuts... welcome 10%+ inflation... Whatever they do now, they are officially fucked. The only thing that will help now is an immediate cut in government spending and immediate cuts in money supply and that would have to happen on a dramatic scale!
  • #25
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  • Nov 3, 2023 10:55am Nov 3, 2023 10:55am
Quoting MatTrader101
{quote} Agreed I did say this about 2 months ago... the FED is officially out of Ammo, the further increase rates = we will have the next great DEPRESSION, they keep it higher for longer... we have the next great DEPRESSION, they do rate cuts... welcome 10%+ inflation... Whatever they do now, they are officially fucked. The only thing that will help now is an immediate cut in government spending and immediate cuts in money supply and that would have to happen on a dramatic scale!
It's a mad mad world ...we're all screwed ....bwaaaah
  • #26
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  • Nov 3, 2023 11:44am Nov 3, 2023 11:44am
Interest rates are going to punish them a lot, it’s just the beginning
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