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Focus on Fed-Speak
The US Dollar is stalled at a key resistance level ahead of a slew of incoming data and Fed-speak this week. Looking ahead today, Fed’s Goolsbee and Bowman are due to speak. Both Fed members have been on the hawkish side recently, speaking in favour of further tightening as a result of inflation risks remaining elevated. Last time around, Goolsbee said that further signs of inflation moderating were needed before making a decision in September. With annual CPI seen rising to 3.2% last month from 3% the prior month, it’s clear that inflation is softening though a further hike might still be needed to drive CPI back down to target quickly.
PMIs Due Wednesday
Tomorrow, focus will then turn to the next round of US PMIs. Both factory and non-factory readings are expected to cool somewhat. Should data come in sharply below forecasts, this will likely feed into the narrative that the Fed will remain on hold in September. On the other hand, if we see these readings beating forecasts, particularly if both are in growth territory, this might increase risks of a September hike.
Powell on Friday
Finally, Powell speaks on Friday and traders will be keen to hear if any clear signal is given for September. The latest FOMC minutes showed that policy makers were still concerned about inflationary risks, which were seen as likely requiring further hiking. If this message is reaffirmed this will likely lead USD higher on hawkish Fed expectations.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally in the index has seen price breaking above the bear channel highs. Price is currently stalled against the 103.48 level resistance level. This is a major pivot point for the market and a break higher here will be firmly bullish putting focus on a continuation to 104.95 next.
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