Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Australia, declined moderately by 0.2 percent in April 2023 to 118.4 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in March, based on revised data. The LEI decreased by 1.3 percent from October 2022 to April 2023, an accelerated rate of decline from the 0.1 percent contraction over the previous six-month period between April and October 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia remained unchanged in April 2023 at 113.8 (2016=100), after improving by 0.4 percent in March. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, slower than the 1.2 percent gain over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Australia fell in April for the fifth month in a row, suggesting weakening economic growth in the coming months” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Growth is facing headwinds such as greatly elevated inflation and higher interest rates domestically, as well as potential recessions or slowdowns in major global economies. The Conference Board recently revised its 2023 real GDP growth forecast for Australia to 1.6 percent year-over-year, down from a previously forecasted 2.1 percent expansion.”

The LEI for Australia slipped in April for the fifth consecutive month

Most non-financial components of the Australia LEI have weakened over the past 6 months

The year-over-year growth rate of the Australia LEI has turned negative, suggesting moderating growth in the near-term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org