AUD/USD falls from recent highs on risk-off impulse due to Fed tightening estimates
AUD/USD retreats after testing the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), due to sentiment shifting sour on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can continue to tighten monetary conditions. Hence, US Treasury bond yields remain climbing. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6717 after hitting a high of 0.6741. The US Dollar (USD) is underpinned by elevated US T-bond yields. Compared to Tuesday’s close, the US 2-year Treasury note is yielding 4.265%, gains six and a half basis points. For the upcoming May meeting, traders expect a 25 bps rate hike, as the CME FedWatch Tool shows, with odds at 82.8%. A slew of ... (full story)
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The old Disraeli line is that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Like most market commentary, I focus on the former two (i.e., politics) and the ...
post at 12:22pm: SNB’s Schlegel: Swiss Inflation Is Low In Int’l Comparison ‘But Still Too High’ - Inflation Is ‘Above The Level We Associate With Price Stability’ post at 12:24pm: SNB'S SCHLEGEL: WE CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER INTEREST RATE HIKES TO BRING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL.
Most traders recognize that psychology is a big part of trading. A common experience for many traders is a P&L boom & bust cycle, make money, and then lose it. Rinse and repeat. A ...
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post at 1:57pm: UK Chancellor Hunt: Inflation Above 10% Destabilizes The Economy - RTRS - There Is A Plan To Bring Inflation Down - Tightness In Labour Market As A Factor Behind Inflation
Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks. Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth. Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two Districts saw outlooks deteriorate. Consumer spending was generally seen as flat to down slightly amid continued reports of moderate price growth. Auto sales remained steady overall, with only a couple of Districts reporting improved sales and inventory levels. Travel and tourism picked up across much of the country this period. Manufacturing activity was widely reported as flat or down even as supply chains continued to improve. Transportation and freight volumes were also flat to down, according to several Districts. On balance, residential real estate sales and new construction activity softened modestly. Nonresidential construction was little changed while sales and leasing activity was generally flat to down. Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types. Several Districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. The majority of Districts reported steady to increasing demand and sales for nonfinancial services. Agriculture conditions were mostly unchanged in recent weeks while some softening was reported in energy markets. post at 2:01pm: FED'S BEIGE BOOK: IN RECENT WEEKS, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. post at 2:01pm: FED'S BEIGE BOOK: LENDING VOLUMES AND DEMAND FOR CONSUMER AND BUSINESS LOANS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED. post at 2:01pm: Beige Book: "Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing" post at 2:02pm: FED'S BEIGE BOOK: JOB GROWTH HAS SLOWED, AND LABOR MARKETS HAVE BECOME LESS CONSTRAINED.
Global median inflation rate has fallen from its peak, but all major countries are still in an inflationary uptrend, keeping several central banks in tightening mode for now. UK ...