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Interest rates likely to return towards pre-pandemic levels when inflation is tamed
Real interest rates have rapidly increased recently as monetary policy has tightened in response to higher inflation. Whether this uptick is temporary or partly reflects structural factors is an important question for policymakers. Since the mid-1980s, real interest rates at all maturities and across most advanced economies have been steadily declining. Such long-run changes in real rates likely reflect a decline in the natural rate, which is the real interest rate that would keep inflation at target and the economy operating at full employment–neither expansionary nor contractionary. The natural rate is a ... (full story)