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  • The Employment Situation -- January 2023

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and ... (full story)

Added at 8:39am

  • US Payrolls Post Surprise Surge, Jobless Rate Hits 53-Year Low

    From bnnbloomberg.ca

    The US labor market burned red-hot in January as hiring unexpectedly surged and unemployment fell to a 53-year low, defying recession forecasts and adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased 517,000 last month after an upwardly revised 260,000 gain in December, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969 and average hourly earnings grew at steady clip. Hiring topped all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which called for a 188,000 gain in payrolls and for the unemployment rate to rise to ... (full story)

great NFP boys, time for federal reserve to reverse repo another 2 trillion of 0 day to expiry spy and tesla calls
+500k WTF !!!
i expected it to be good but not like this.
good news, soft landing
burn EUR burn!
Quoting Ftmofx
How is it possible the number?
lol no one know
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.53.229
People who think you tame this kind of inflation back to 2% with words and gestures are not on with reality.
Quoting eleste
good news, soft landing
Bad news for stock market because it means the market will admit Fed will be more aggressive with its interest rate hikes.
I have my doubts about this number
Quoting Bakker
I have my doubts about this number
its 500k of people who lost their saving in FTX and now desperately took any job
Aside from the big surprises in NFP and the 53 year low in the unemployment rate, avg hourly earnings was revised up. That means last month's number (which triggered big moves across the board) was actually only in line with expectations. Very bullish for the US dollar.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
the number is insanely high
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:1e4f:5334
laying off thousands and thousands of high paying tech jobs. What are the ones being created?
Quoting Ftmofx
How is it possible the number?
Its NOT - Something is VERY fishy here
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Bakker
I have my doubts about this number
Look at it this way, every time 100k software engineers gets fired, 100K new jobs are added because we have 1000s of small software firms who are begging for new talent but could not afford to attract them when Microsoft and Facebook could with their massive salaries.

The other part of this number is people working in leaser and hospitality with growing demand.
Be alarmed IMO. I've spent the last couple of years barely believing anything but this takes the biscuit.
Quoting eleste
good news, soft landing
Soooo wrong. This FORCES the hand of the FED to raise above 5.25% for 2023.

This ENSURES A CRASH/RECESSION in the 3Q there will be no soft landing.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Capelli
{quote} Look at it this way, every time 100k software engineers gets fired, 100K new jobs are added because we have 1000s of small software firms who are begging for new talent but could not afford to attract them when Microsoft and Facebook could with their massive salaries. The other part of this number is people working in leaser and hospitality with growing demand.
I guess you're right buddy.
Quoting jordanvic
{quote} its 500k of people who lost their saving in FTX and now desperately took any job

Killer numbers out there!!!
What world are they living in?? Complete fabrication.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.53.179
Well, here in our country loaning activity is actually increasing despite high-interest rates, people probably overspent in December and needed to work after overspending, not to mention the consecutive strong US data released last week actually supports this.
Quoting jordanvic
{quote} its 500k of people who lost their saving in FTX and now desperately took any job

Hahahahahaha But I think the US have good economy to have hired such number of people.
Quoting Ftmofx
How is it possible the number?
you really think all these numbers are real?lol its everything false manipulation only.nothing real
question is who relases these numbers i bet BIG GUYS
reversal....retreat MF
Gottt damn 517k?!? Wtf? This is insane… this is all a casino game. ALL THE ESTIMATES that i saw had it as below 200K. But 517k c ‘mon man…

Seeing the comments we are all like doubting …ha!
Quoting Sennerd
Be alarmed IMO. I've spent the last couple of years barely believing anything but this takes the biscuit.
Riiiiight?!? ALL the estimates were low…but this?!? Wow insane..
I only trade USD/JPY, on daily I note the pair strike a well established resistance line at 130.20; for those of you who cares.
All of you guys doubting the 500k figure need to provide proof. Gut feelings are worthless.
. . and if PMI comes in with a bad number??
Wow... many here are shorting daaa king...
demo tok kenal barey boh!
Have to see if anyone believes this.
From the Household Survey Data.
"Both the unemployment rate at 3.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.7 million, changed little in January. The unemployment rate has shown little net movement since early 2022"

So we are supposed to believe blowout job creation of 517000, yet total unemployed numbers remain the same.
Guess all those new job hires were filled by illegal immigrants.

add: Comes to mind what Stalin said, it's not who votes that counts but who counts the vote.
Quoting foto
Have to see if anyone believes this. From the Household Survey Data. "Both the unemployment rate at 3.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.7 million, changed little in January. The unemployment rate has shown little net movement since early 2022" So we are supposed to believe blowout job creation of 517000, yet total unemployed numbers remain the same. Guess all those new job hires were filled by illegal immigrants.
I wouldn't use results of a survey which is based on a small sample within the entire population to make an accurate prediction.
why so many people are surprised? Do some DD and you will see that military industry start working 24/7, they need work force even more... Did you forget what is a war for US?
Quoting raklian
{quote} I wouldn't use results of a survey which is based on a small sample within the entire population to make an accurate prediction.
Seems to be accurate enough to be included in the release. Suggests a glaring discrepancy.
Construction seems to have added 25,000 while builders are getting swamped with cancellations.
I come from a construction background and still frequent supply houses who in my neck of the US are dead in the water for middle class housing.
Slowdown started after Fed started to raise rates and has not turned whatsoever.


add: also says construction added on average 22,000 jobs per month in 2022.

This we are supposed to believe as house prices fell and sales collapsed.
Yes! Dollar will start to pullback! Short EUR
Quoting foto
{quote} Seems to be accurate enough to be included in the release. Suggests a glaring discrepancy. Construction seems to have added 25,000 while builders are getting swamped with cancellations. I come from a construction background and still frequent supply houses who in my neck of the US are dead in the water for middle class housing. Slowdown started after Fed started to raise rates and has not turned whatsoever. add: also says construction added on average 22,000 jobs per month in 2022. This we are supposed to believe as house prices fell and...
Personal anecdotes aren't exactly the best way to describe the overall state of the entire country. In my case, to counter your argument, construction is booming and house prices are still increasing at where I live. So, which one of us is correct? There is no way to know for sure. All that matters is that the market reacted to the news as if it is accurate. Let's wait for the official revision to the figure to settle this.
I think the "TECH CUTS 5K JOBS" headlines are fueling ideas of a rosy return to ZLB without respecting the actual magnitude of the numbers and industry. When this doesn't materialize to numbers everyone cries "manipulation".. but adjustments and other measurement perversions have always been a factor with govt data.

Those headlines are much more relevant to market cap, and much less relevant to the Fed's mandate in this environment... measuring largest US Industries by market cap is simply a different picture than measuring by size of workforce.

Sentiment's involvement in the market is just as strong as it was during peak-covid risk taking and may permanently be a larger amplifier than it ever was in the past, when financial information wasn't as fluid and retail wasn't as involved.

The difference between peak-covid risk taking and what we are experiencing now is DATA MATTERS again. I think we are seeing how the increased amplification of sentiment is struggling to reconcile the data with their biases...
Quoting raklian
{quote} Personal anecdotes aren't exactly the best way to describe the overall state of the entire country. In my case, to counter your argument, construction is booming and house prices are still increasing at where I live. So, which one of us is correct? There is no way to know for sure. All that matters is that the market reacted to the news as if it is accurate. Let's wait for the official revision to the figure to settle this.
I live in what is considered an affluent area of US other then the Billionaire class even the millionaire class is feeling the pain of inflation and cost of living bite. I can only interpret what is happening from what is going on.

In addition just also had two other releases this morning.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said
"Business activity in the vast US services economy contracted in January as companies reported a further deterioration in new business inflows. Hiring has almost ground to halt as firms reassess their payroll needs in the light of the weaker demand environment."

Even in the bullish Services PMI Nieves continues "Business Survey Committee respondents indicated that capacity and logistics performance continue to improve. Although responses varied by industry and company, the majority of panelists indicated that business is trending in a positive direction, Employment was unchanged for the month. Some companies still find it difficult to fill open positions, while others are facilitating staff reductions."
In short for some there remains little hiring as there are not qualified people to fill vacancies. For others not filling for people leaving. Still indicates little job growth occurring in either situation according to Nieves.

Little to believe from the headline 517,000. Market not exactly believing this either.
Fake news to prop up the failing Biden Administration. Corporations are laying off by the thousands ffs
  • Comment #41
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 4, 2023 2:44am Feb 3, 2023 2:30pm | Edited Feb 4, 2023 2:44am
I just applied for a job at the Bureau of Labor Fabrications, I mean Statistics.

A clip from my interview with them:

"Hi, my name is Pinocchio. By trade, I'm a weatherman. I routinely predict the weather to be 80 degrees and sunny and then it turns out to be 7 degrees with blizzard conditions.

When do I start?"
"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
  •  Guest
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Lowe's and Home Depot should pay close attention to these numbers
yeah, gimme a job too when you get in :-)
Old Dog Kiwi
Makes me think the Fed will raise another 25bps in the next meeting.
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