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  • Statement on Monetary Policy

    From boj.or.jp Story is in PDF Format

    At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided to modify the conduct of the yield curve control in order to improve market functioning and encourage a smoother formation of the entire yield curve, while maintaining accommodative financial conditions. Since early spring this year, volatility in overseas financial and capital markets has increased and this has significantly affected these markets in Japan. The functioning of bond markets has deteriorated, particularly in terms of relative relationships between spot and futures markets. Yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ... (full story)

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  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:b3e8:52
What statement
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.137.38
finnallyyyyy jp moves !
Really
Crazy lol. I was short on AJ and GJ. Went to get some tea, came back and what a drop
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.219.218
It Christmas time. Santa is back in town!
Where are all the usd/yen Bulls from last week ?????? They said all posted usd/yen was going up??? new lows today - i guess this time will be the low now??? - how many times have they been wrong - lol lol lol Usd/yen is in a downtrend - they need to learn how read a chart
There was 10 bulls to 1 bear from the posts - do the opposite of the crowd to make money
Trading is an ART!
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.58.181
Quantitative Easing to HELL. Japanese Policies will make historical great case study for generations to come. Just keep printing Fiat till death
Other central bank rise up their rates, only boj still keep the rate. How they control their inflation ?
Not sure this is really positive for JPY as BOJ is already buying yen, but what's certain is market manipulation by BOJ during announcement
Trade in the now
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.113.206
Quoting Guest
Quantitative Easing to HELL. Japanese Policies will make historical great case study for generations to come. Just keep printing Fiat till death
Its a big shift in policy. Read the details my friend.

"BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10Y bond yields to rise up-to 0.5% from earlier 0.25%". this is a huge shift in yield curve management and very bullish.
Start To UJ Buy
Hard Work, Never Loss
Quoting Guest
Quantitative Easing to HELL. Japanese Policies will make historical great case study for generations to come. Just keep printing Fiat till death
Its a big shift in policy. Read the details my friend.

"BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10Y bond yields to rise up-to 0.5% from earlier 0.25%". this is a huge shift in yield curve management and very bullish.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.53.37
You should have congratulated yourself on the 10/11 ......

Is this simply part of JP FSB equiv., shoring up late '22 and into '23 year proper.

Enough of USD rates and getting out of band for them perhaps.

Either way, nice $ there danial.


@vinta, the shift is all relative to what they have always done since early 90's, JP being JP.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.58.181
Quoting vinta.reddy
{quote} Its a big shift in policy. Read the details my friend. "BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10Y bond yields to rise up-to 0.5% from earlier 0.25%". this is a huge shift in yield curve management and very bullish.
Whatever, trade by your charts forget about talking heads. Price is King. As for policy, how long do you think negative interest rate will last? Coupled with endless printing in the end?
Quoting Guest
{quote} Whatever, trade by your charts forget about talking heads. Price is King. As for policy, how long do you think negative interest rate will last? Coupled with endless printing in the end?
No difference of view here. Price is king. My only limited argument is price action is useless around critical events. USDJPY Price was building up-to 137. There was clear news that Japanese Govt was in discussion with BOJ in change in yield curve management. This is a classic liquidity management by big players.
Quoting vinta.reddy
{quote} No difference of view here. Price is king. My only limited argument is price action is useless around critical events. USDJPY Price was building up-to 137. There was clear news that Japanese Govt was in discussion with BOJ in change in yield curve management. This is a classic liquidity management by big players.
Each individual's interpretation of price action is different.
Price action is only useless around critical events based on that individual's knowledge of what price action is.
Some other traders still used Price action to catch the whole move. P.A is subjective.
Right or wrong is the trader's problem, not Price action.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.58.181
Quoting vinta.reddy
{quote} No difference of view here. Price is king. My only limited argument is price action is useless around critical events. USDJPY Price was building up-to 137. There was clear news that Japanese Govt was in discussion with BOJ in change in yield curve management. This is a classic liquidity management by big players.
Use higher TF for trading forget LTF build ups. UJ has turned bearish since November 6th. Look at your weekly chart. I've been Shorting it. Now some news comes out Dec. No banter but use your chart, everything is there. Why I bother is I like to see how fast centraldig a country's grave on a macro economic situation scale. It just gives me pleasure to follow the stupidity. But this is not used in my trading...so Price is King...use your chart forget this sorcery.
Check CHFJPY WEEKLY charts past few weeks.
Manipulation?
Or market forces?
Or both?
Did Technical Analysis pick this up as imminent?
Did Fundamental Analysis pick it up as imminent?
No comment as I remember back to the CHF correction 15th January 2015 after weeks of talk and pressure.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.58.181
Quoting Ingot54
Check CHFJPY WEEKLY charts past few weeks. Manipulation? Or market forces? Or both? Did Technical Analysis pick this up as imminent? Did Fundamental Analysis pick it up as imminent? No comment as I remember back to the CHF correction 15th January 2015 after weeks of talk and pressure.
Bro, technical analysis will always get there before late belated funnymental. Bro I can post trades you will cry. I mean picking market tops and lows in major market turnings, try with fundamental analysis. fundamental is good to confirm your TA positions to hold for long term. Lemme shock you. I shorted BTC high still holding part now.... TA for timing, fundamental is reason to hold. That ends the argument. And oh, honor your stop loss level...bye my friend
Dollar is going to suffer big time.
Remember this?
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USD/JPY will complete RSI and MACD Weekly bearish chart even the monthly bearish chart. It will behave like a BTC/USD.
Quoting Guest
{quote} Bro, technical analysis will always get there before late belated funnymental. Bro I can post trades you will cry. I mean picking market tops and lows in major market turnings, try with fundamental analysis. fundamental is good to confirm your TA positions to hold for long term. Lemme shock you. I shorted BTC high still holding part now.... TA for timing, fundamental is reason to hold. That ends the argument. And oh, honor your stop loss level...bye my friend
Price action is created by anticipation of news as well though..... Price action is an extension of interpretations of news and speculation of future news releases as well as interpretations of past price action. They are all intertwined. All of you who are trying to argue which is greater fundamentals or price action seem to be missing the point which is they are inextricably linked to each other. If you buy and sell according to fundamentals you are in effect creating price action and if you buy and sell according to price action you are in effect trading fundamental/past price action influence. It then becomes a question of which came first the chicken or the egg lol. I believe before any price ever fluctuated, there was some sort of fundamentals or news/rumor that came first and caused this change in price.
Quoting Guest
{quote} Bro, technical analysis will always get there before late belated funnymental. Bro I can post trades you will cry. I mean picking market tops and lows in major market turnings, try with fundamental analysis. fundamental is good to confirm your TA positions to hold for long term. Lemme shock you. I shorted BTC high still holding part now.... TA for timing, fundamental is reason to hold. That ends the argument. And oh, honor your stop loss level...bye my friend
hi, if you dont mind can i ask what type of TA you use?
Quoting danial57
Trading is an ART! {image}
I salute your prediction!!!!
  • Comment #27
  • Quote
  • Edited Dec 21, 2022 2:50am Dec 20, 2022 9:55pm | Edited Dec 21, 2022 2:50am
Most arguments here are worthless, the charts tell you everything, there are fixed setups coming from PA and the most reliable ones appear on the hourly chart with M30 as your guidance. You've got 99% of the time TWO chances a day and seldomly more than TWO. If you miss those 2 you're screwed, but keep in mind there is always a next day. The first setup comes with London opening and the next with NY.
Find your W (low) and your M (high), watch your ma crossovers (very ST) and WAIT until the ma's open up well, BUT keep your eye on the neckline of W (for up) and M (for down) AND WATCH THE CANDLE CREATING THE CROSSING OF MA'S (it should be a full body crossing). The formation consists of 6 candles. Happy Trading and STAY OUT OF THE MARKET when major news events are coming up. Stick to your rules!!!
AND, very important, watch the volumes building up towards your point of entry. See picture below of this morning. Note the buildup of volume.
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Quoting Bakker
Most arguments here are worthless, the charts tell you everything, there are fixed setups coming from PA and the most reliable ones appear on the hourly chart with M30 as your guidance.
The notion that one timeframe give more reliable signals than another is such a fallacy. Why? Timeframes do not give signals....The market does. The market exists in every timeframe so a PA signal given on weekly is no more or less reliable than a signal given on m5. Since the market is what gives signals, to enhance reliability you have to assess the market. You best assess the market by understanding what the market is made of. The market is not made of timeframes lol. The market is the whole. Marketplaces(Sydney, Tokyo, London, US) are the parts that form the whole. Meaning it is the markeplaces(sessions) that make the market. Maketplaces are the building blocks of the market. Reliable signals will be found when you relate one market place to the next. After doing analysis on which ever timeframe, consider what the sessions are doing to enhance reliability.
What you said is common knowledge, what I tried to convey is that certain timeframes are more reliable than others with less risk. Don't try to make trading a science, it isn't and you don't need a degree in maths or economics. Some people think if they made a success with trading they should be honored with a Nobel prize of some sort. No my friend, don't try to be intellectual, its all so very simple.
Quoting Steven1
Where are all the usd/yen Bulls from last week ?????? They said all posted usd/yen was going up??? new lows today - i guess this time will be the low now??? - how many times have they been wrong - lol lol lol Usd/yen is in a downtrend - they need to learn how read a chart There was 10 bulls to 1 bear from the posts - do the opposite of the crowd to make money
Hey Steven, Just chill ok?

Yes there were 10 bulls to 1 bear on UJ as well there should have been. It's called the CARRY TRADE and since 2021 it has been VERY PROFITABLE.

So maybe you should just lighten up a little, drink some eggnog and chill.

I'm glad you practice broken clock theory.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} The notion that one timeframe give more reliable signals than another is such a fallacy. Why? Timeframes do not give signals....The market does. The market exists in every timeframe so a PA signal given on weekly is no more or less reliable than a signal given on m5. Since the market is what gives signals, to enhance reliability you have to assess the market. You best assess the market by understanding what the market is made of. The market is not made of timeframes lol. The market is the whole. Marketplaces(Sydney, Tokyo, London, US) are...
With all due respect I could not disagree more.

1. Timeframes do not give signals - PERIOD! When I open my charts and get the data no signals magically appear. I PLACE indicators on my charts to assist me in interpretating price action. Maybe YOU use a service that gives signals but please correct me and point me to a data service that provides signals - they don't.

2. You assertation that all time frames are equal = hogwash. "Signals generated" on 1 minute timeframes (TF) are much less reliable than those on daily charts - at least to swing/position traders; to a scalper time is nothing it is the price ACTION that is important.

Don't believe me? Focus on the NYE session and times - MOST of the action takes placed from 8-10 and 3-4. From 12-2 it's called LUNCHTIME and most people don't trade - look at the price action DEAD! How many signals generated in that time period are reliable? Hint: not many.

3. I agree with Bakker on this - you don't need a degree in economics or advanced Calculus degrees, most is common sense and the ability to follow the money...

Don't make it harder than it is...
...because you never know - until you do!
Thanks fxsport, you're spot on, I also wanted to elaborate more, but I don't want to waste my time with those people whose soul purpose it is to "educate" people. I'm not in need of more knowledge on how to trade.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} With all due respect I could not disagree more. 1. Timeframes do not give signals - PERIOD! When I open my charts and get the data no signals magically appear. I PLACE indicators on my charts to assist me in interpretating price action. Maybe YOU use a service that gives signals but please correct me and point me to a data service that provides signals - they don't. 2. You assertation that all time frames are equal = hogwash. "Signals generated" on 1 minute timeframes (TF) are much less reliable than those on daily charts - at...
1. I literally said Timeframes DO NOT give signals and you then say you disagree only to agree with me on your first item lol. Do you trade high? If so please point me to your dealer cause you're on some good stuff lol. Please don't be too hung up on the term signal. It is what ever entices you to take a trade.

2. There are price action day traders that trade certain lower timeframes only that get similar results to swing traders and position traders in terms of accuracy. I wonder why that is? The markets are fractal end of story.

You seem to be losing sight of the actual point. We are discussing Timeframes as in 1 minute candles, 5 minute candles, hour candles, weekly candles meaning the timeframes that are on your charting platform that change the candle duration which denotes different price moves that traders interpret. You are discussing hours of the day as an example which is not exactly what we are talking about because in those hours from 8 to 10 or 3-4 traders can be executing trades on multiple timeframes(1 min chart, 5 min chart, day chart weekly chart. Also there are so many traders that trade from 12 to 2. Just because the market is smaller doesnt mean there isn't a market and there is plenty of money being made and plenty of trades taken because again that market is people so if the price move money is being made and trades are being placed by algos etc. Just because you arent making money from 12 to 2 doesn't mean nobody is. As you say "most people dont trade" however many do.

3. With all due respect your and bakker's mentioning of timeframes as requirements for trading accuracy screams science. My view is definitely much simpler. When did I assert that trading was a science or that a degree was needed? Seems like a strawman argument. You are complicating things by considering certain timeframes to be more reliable than others. You don't get anymore scientific than that lol. I am simply saying you should treat the market as PEOPLE. Marketplaces are people trading so you should focus more on their behaviors rather than timeframes. You sir are overcomplicating things with all this timeframe superiority bs. It shouldn't be a timeframe focus requirement it should be a trading behavior requirement. Treat the market as people because that is what they are. Isn't this much simpler lol.

Oh the misguided lol. Good discussion though. I wish you green pips brother.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.22.118
All timeframe lives matter
Quoting Bakker
Thanks fxsport, you're spot on, I also wanted to elaborate more, but I don't want to waste my time with those people whose soul purpose it is to "educate" people. I'm not in need of more knowledge on how to trade.
So sensitive my goodness. I know words can hurt but why so hurt from words on a forum made for discussion? No one said you were in need of more knowledge on how to trade. It is just a healthy discussion of ideas for discussion's sake and whoever is reading that would derive value from said discussion. It is all friendly. Don't be so sensitive lol. I wish you all the best and all the green pips on all timeframes my friend haha
Quoting Paymanz
{quote} hi, if you dont mind can i ask what type of TA you use?
I decline to expose! For sure I do not use;
a. Indicators that do some calculations/extrapolations like RSI, BB band, moving average, etc too late to the party.
b. I do not use PURE Price action and funny candle formations.
c. I do not use orderflow/volumes.
d. Support and Resistance; horizontal or trendline! I don't even believe it is a thing! You can combine if you want.

BUT I use PURE PRICE and Key Reference Prices and market cycles; cycles in a way that is not on internet. Very discretionary and very high probability. I can't disclose here. We are few in our group and it is our secret. We do not let it out. But we observe others are using it too in secret in a greater or less form. So sorry...I can't say. The concept is out there but not refined...just like air, there is oxygen waiting to be extracted.
Moving average, too late to the party?? Then you obviously don't know how to use it. Maybe you're also one of those, like almost 99% of traders, that use it the same old way everybody is using it. There's also a deep secret here obtained after years and years of study. Take note, I'm 71 years old!!!!
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