UK OBR: UK GDP to recover to pre-pandemic level in Q4 2024

tweet at 8:00am: BULLARD: FED RATE HIKES TO DATE HAVE HAD "ONLY LIMITED EFFECT ON OBSERVED INFLATION"Bullard: Getting into the Zone Inflation remains unacceptably high, well in excess of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target of 2%. • During 2022, the FOMC has been moving toward policy settings that will put meaningful downward pressure on inflation in order to return inflation to the 2% target. • This approach has included significant increases in the policy rate as well as a program of balance sheet reduction. • Thus far, the change in the monetary policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023. The most recent FOMC statement refers to ongoing increases in the policy rate to reach a level that is “sufficiently restrictive.” • This talk will give my views of a sufficiently restrictive level of the policy rate for the current macroeconomic environment. • My approach to this question is based on “generous” assumptions— assumptions that tend to favor a more dovish policy over a more hawkish one. • Key point: Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.