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The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate rise at the November FOMC meeting
The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate rise at the November FOMC meeting.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 21, 2022
⁰That meeting could serve as a critical staging ground for future plans, including whether and how to step down to 50 basis points in December https://t.co/vPMSXDjHL8
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Some officials are more eager to calibrate their rate setting to reduce the risk of overtightening.⁰
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 21, 2022
But they won’t want to dramatically loosen financial conditions if and when they hike by 50 bps (instead of 75).⁰
This meeting could allow officials to get aligned on next steps
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“The equity market has been so eager to see pivots by the Fed,” said @BostjancicKathy ⁰
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 21, 2022
Those pivots include a slowdown in the hiking pace, a pause, and—eventually—cuts.⁰
“The equity market keeps jumping ahead to the last pivot, and we’re a long way from the Fed cutting rates.”
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“A half-point hike at this meeting would result in a dramatic loosening of financial conditions no matter what language they paired it with,” said @jasonfurman ⁰
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 21, 2022
“But by December, you can keep financial conditions very restrictive even with 50.”
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