Think back to this time last year. Inflation was still “transitory”, the S&P 500 began its final bull run to 4,800, Tesla squeezed to $1,200 (pre-split), Ethereum approached $5,000, and the 1-year U.S. Treasury traded at a 0.11% yield. The final months of 2021 marked the dying thrust of a liquidity fueled frenzy in financial markets that began in early 2020 at the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Quantitative Easing (QE) had overstayed its welcome, inflation was spreading, and the blanket-excuse of a COVID “emergency” seemed less persuasive by the day. True-believer enthusiasm for crypto, SPACs, and ... (full story)
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The EUR/USD losses its grip around the 20-day EMA and edges lower as the North American session progresses, amidst a firm US dollar, following the release of a US hot inflation ...
The US September retail sales report is not terrible, but it doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Headline sales came in on the softer side at 0% month-on-month versus ...
tweet at 1:39pm: U.S. Treasury’s Yellen: - Seeing Swings in Capital Flows and ‘Strong Movements’ in Capital Markets - Attentive to Spillovers of Macroeconomic Tightening From Advanced Economies to the Rest of the World tweet at 1:39pm: US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: INFLATION IS HIGH IN MANY COUNTRIES, AND GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING. tweet at 1:49pm: US Treasury’s Yellen: - Debt Problems Growing More Acute for Low-Income Countries - One Barrier to Progress on Debt Issues Is ‘Predator’ Country China
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tweet at 3:14pm: Fed’s Bullard: - September Inflation Warrants More “Frontloading” Though Not Necessarily Higher Overall Rates - Appropriate That Rates Reach Range of 4.5%-4.75% by Year’s End, With Any Further Hikes in 2023 Being “Data Dependent” tweet at 3:15pm: Fed’s Bullard: - Current Inversion of Yield Curve a “Nominal Inversion” Involving Expected Inflation, Not Indicator of Recession Risk - “Would Not Predict” That Policy Rates Need to Hit 5%; if That Becomes Necessary It Is Because Inflation Is Not Slowing As Hoped tweet at 3:19pm: Fed's Bullard - There is potential for a soft landing given the strength of the labor market and companies reluctance to lay off people -Markets are not overly stressed, but are transitioning to higher interest rates
tweet at 3:33pm: ECB'S NAGEL: IT IS CRITICAL TO TIGHTEN MONETARY POLICY. tweet at 3:34pm: ECB’s Nagel: - We Are in a Very Difficult Situation - Important to Tighten Monetary Policy - Not Thinking About the Neutral Rate - ECB Balance Sheet Is Too Large, Needs to Shrink - ECB Balance Sheet Shrinkage Should Start Next Year
BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett (whose latest weekly note we will dissect shortly) has a favorite saying for when critical phase (to avoid the most hated word in ...