Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.5 percent in August to 80.7 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in July. The LEI contracted by 2.8 in the six-month period ending in August 2022, a reversal from growth of 1.7 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the United Kingdom ticked down by 0.1 percent in August to 103.7 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in July. The CEI contracted by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, after decreasing by 0.1 percent in the previous six-month period.

“The UK LEI marked a sixth consecutive decline in August, pointing to a significant near-term risk of recession in the UK,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Eroding consumer sentiment and increased pessimism about housing sales have been the major drivers of the recent decline. Amid high inflation, tighter monetary policy, energy supply disruptions, and rising uncertainty, The Conference Board downgraded its UK real GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2022 and 2023.” 

The UK LEI continued its downward trajectory, pointing to elevated risk of recession 

Eroding consumer confidence and housing sales expectations were the main drivers of the decline 

The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell further into negative territory highlighting recession risks heading into 2023 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for The United Kingdom: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for The United Kingdom include: Unemployment Claimant Counts, Weekly Working Hours, General Economic Situation, Stock Prices, Yield Spread, Productivity, Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations, Housing Sales Expectation.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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