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  • Unemployment insurance weekly claims

    From dol.gov Story is in PDF Format

    In the week ending October 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 193,000 to 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 207,000 to 206,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending September 24, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate ... (full story)

Yup was totally expected
Master your mind. Master Trading.
You know that this is not a bad number, right)?
Quoting Robert1991
You know that this is not a bad number, right)?
This is very bad for USD as this is an indicator of inflation dropping feds will pivot now
Master your mind. Master Trading.
Quoting Robert1991
You know that this is not a bad number, right)?
Explain plz
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} This is very bad for USD as this is an indicator of inflation dropping feds will pivot now
Lol! If this is bad, then 350k what number is for you? It needs to be at least 300k or higher this, to really think of stopping raising and pausing, not pivoting.
Quoting Robert1991
{quote} Lol! If this is bad, then 350k what number is for you? It needs to be at least 300k or higher this, to really think of stopping raising and pausing, not pivoting.
You fail to understand that this is the best indicator for inflation dropping, a rise in unemployment. The US has had a confirmed recession last week which generally mean’s unemployment will rise. This proves it here so far and based on this no way feds will hike anymore
Master your mind. Master Trading.
Yeah, thanks for the heads up, but I know exactly what this indicator is and what are the major ones. The real inflation won't drop yet (the core one) which is way sticky for now. Yep, the recession is around the corner, but it is not here for now. Thanks again for explaining the role of this indicator, but I think I've learned something from my CFA exams )
Even more fuel added to the pivot expectations and the dollar going down for a while.

If we get a a higher unemployment rate as well tomorrow, the market is going to rally 3% again thinking the FED will pivot 100%. The chances of a that are increasing as we get more data that the economy is somewhat shrinking, on top of the pressure the FED has from everyone to cut rate hikes.

We're still not in good conditions, but it's a good spot to get a position going up imo.
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} You fail to understand that this is the best indicator for inflation dropping, a rise in unemployment. The US has had a confirmed recession last week which generally mean’s unemployment will rise. This proves it here so far and based on this no way feds will hike anymore
Agree but the number was almost inline so nothing to get excited about
This is definitively not sufficient for FED to stop hiking in my view. However, I believe that deep down inside FED is looking for that straw which they can use to pause hiking.
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Don’t matter, US dollar still bullish. EU back trending to the downside. 0.95. & 0.90 coming up real soon
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Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} This is very bad for USD as this is an indicator of inflation dropping feds will pivot now
LMAO, 14k over expected figure is nothing. It will take multiple months of declining inflation prints (CPI/PCE) for the FED to even pause hiking, let alone ease. Read some of the comments FED officials have been making. FED pivots about as easily as a Freight train, not a Ferrari. Right now selling dollars is fighting gravity. Good luck, you'll need it.
Quoting Banditten
This is definitively not sufficient for FED to stop hiking in my view. However, I believe that deep down inside FED is looking for that straw which they can use to pause hiking.
The FED know's they should have started raising rates sooner... they lied about it or worse they were ignorant and completely blindsided by it... now that they are on the war path to raise rates to fight inflation and have abandoned forward guidance, because they literally have no idea how long it will take for them to raise rates at a sluggish rate before inflation is in control let alone slows to their 2-2.5 rate.... the hope that the FED will pivot is complete and utter wishfull thinking.

The facts are inflation is out of control.
The FED KNOWS it.
The Market can't think with anything but their emotion about it.


IF I wanted to speculate I'd gamble that the FED pivots after the mid term elections in the US, for political reasons, rather than any factual economic indicator.
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