Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia increased by 0.4 percent in July 2022 to 121.8 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June. The LEI increased by 3.4 percent from January to July of 2022, a reversal from the 0.8 percent contraction between July 2021 and January 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Australia decreased by 0.1 percent in July 2022 to 112.3 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The CEI improved by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, a slight decrease from its 1.2 percent growth over the previous six months.

“The LEI for Australia rose in July suggesting the economy should keep expanding in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The LEI for Australia remains on an upward trajectory with widespread strength among leading indicators. Despite headwinds to global growth, the overall economic situation in Australia remains relatively positive. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP in Australia will grow by 4.0 percent in 2022 before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2023, slight upgrades from the previous forecasts of 3.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.”

The Australia LEI increased in July, pointing to continued growth in the short-term

Positive contributions from most components more than offset the decline in building approvals

The trajectory of the Australia LEI remined positive suggesting the economy should continue to expand

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) Australia: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include: Yield Spread, Share Prices, M3 Money Supply, Building Approvals, Rural Goods Exports, Sales to Inventories Ratio, and Gross Operating Surplus.

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