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Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation
The war in Ukraine triggered a surge in commodity prices. In the weeks after its onset, oil prices rose by over 30% and European natural gas prices by more than 60%. Food and metals prices also spiked (Graph 1, left-hand panel). These increases came on top of substantial price gains in 2021, moving prices well above pre-pandemic levels. Although prices have since retreated somewhat, they remain high by historical standards. As the war continues, the outlook for commodity markets is remarkably uncertain. Rising commodity prices went hand in hand with the threat of major supply disruptions. Russia and Ukraine are ... (full story)