GBPUSD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 06.05.22 – 13.05.22

tweet at 9:44am: @FrankElderson: We are planning to end our net asset purchases soon, in the third quarter of this year. They have worked well and helped our inflation outlook to stabilise around 2% in the medium term #AskECB https://t.co/mh2P1aGioj

tweet at 9:01am: @FrankElderson: Russia’s horrific war in Ukraine has shown how vulnerable Europe is as a result of our dependency on fossil fuels. We all need to do our part to speed up the green transition to reduce these dependencies and protect people from energy price spikes #AskECB https://t.co/L5AhDVk81N tweet at 9:05am: @FrankElderson: Surging energy prices are the main reason for current high inflation, but supply bottlenecks are also playing a role. While higher interest rates would not solve this, we have to ensure that high inflation does not get entrenched in people’s expectations #AskECB https://t.co/NZX5Hp2iJQ tweet at 9:03am: @FrankElderson: We hear people’s concerns and take them seriously. Inflation is very high at the moment, which is particularly hard on people with low incomes. We will decide on the next step for the normalisation of our policies in June #AskECB https://t.co/DQBfyLmSK8 tweet at 9:07am: @FrankElderson: Housing price statistics for the euro area are prepared by Eurostat, and that’s the data we look at. There is quite a bit of variation in house price growth between countries. For a recent release, see here https://t.co/AQJLFBH63E #AskECB https://t.co/f5cg9xAyBr tweet at 9:19am: @FrankElderson: Weaker incoming data don’t suggest so far that we’re entering a recession and we expect inflation to decline – all depending on how the war evolves and the impact of sanctions. We will decide on the next step for the normalisation of our policies in June #AskECB https://t.co/9rGXHYcHYP

tweet at 10:05am: *Chinese Tech Companies Quietly Stop Doing Business With Russia -- WSJ *Chinese Firms Pulling Back Under Pressure From U.S. Sanctions and Suppliers -- WSJ *Chinese Companies Make Moves Despite Beijing Warnings to Resist Outside Coercion -- WSJ

tweet at 10:08am: *KASHKARI SAYS FED MUST FOLLOW THROUGH ON ITS FORWARD GUIDANCE tweet at 10:10am: FED'S KASHKARI: MY OWN ESTIMATE OF THE NEUTRAL RATE REMAINS AT 2%.Policy Has Tightened a Lot. Is It Enough? An important question for monetary policymakers is, What policy stance, including the current setting of the federal funds rate, the current size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the expected paths of the funds rate and balance sheet, represents “neutral” — neither stimulating nor restraining the economy? In our Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the participants in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) estimate the longer-run level of the federal funds rate — that is, the overnight nominal interest rate that best represents neutral in the longer run, once the various shocks that are hitting the economy have passed. We cannot observe the neutral funds rate directly; we can only estimate it. My own estimate of the nominal neutral funds rate is 2.0 percent, and the range of estimates in the most recent SEP among FOMC participants is from 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent.