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  • The first Fed rate hike is now expected as early as July following the hot US CPI data

    From cnbc.com

    Traders in the futures markets moved up their expectations for the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike to July from September, following a hotter than expected inflation report. “It’s a very sharp move we’re seeing the back end of 2022,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. October’s consumer price index came in at a scorching 6.2% year-over-year, higher than the 5.9% expected. Traders are now fully pricing in a first rate hike for September, but they are pricing in much higher odds that the Fed starts to raise rates sooner. The Fed has said it would complete ... (full story)

As early as July? I wish I had a comedian's talent. In a trading world July might as well be the end of the universe.

Big message for traders is to ignore distractions and focus on what really matters. Distractions include global inflation, inflation anywhere, Pandemic impacts deepening, climate change, Putin, CCP, Middle East chaos. What matters are global trade, democracy (including USA), pandemic impacts ending, GDP growth (sorry Greta), economic orthodoxy and of course common sense, the scarcist commodity in the universe. Let's all buckle down for Risk On and a volatile ride.
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    Natural Gas Inventory +7 bcf vs +10 bcf Expected

    From streetinsider.com|Nov 10, 2021

    Working gas in storage was 3,618 Bcf as of Friday, November 5, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 308 ...

    Inflation may cause Fed to 'act earlier than expected': Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist

    From youtube.com/yahoofinance|Nov 10, 2021

    Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti joins Yahoo Finance's Emily McCormick, Brian Sozzi, and Julie Hyman to discuss the latest inflation data and what it means for ...

    Fed's Daly: Inflation is high, we have a challenge right now

    From @DeItaone|Nov 10, 2021

    tweet at 11:04am: FED'S DALY: INFLATION IS HIGH, WE HAVE A CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW tweet at 11:04am: Fed's Daly (2021) says US has an inflation challenge, inflation is eye-popping; but notes COVID still affecting supply chains, which matters for inflation and jobs, and still sees inflation as transitory https://t.co/R4U08so6TE tweet at 11:06am: FED'S DALY: EVEN THOUGH IT'S TEMPORARY, HIGH INFLATION HURTS FED'S DALY: IT WOULD BE PREMATURE TO CHANGE CALCULATION ON RAISING RATES FED'S DALY: HIGHER INFLATION READINGS HAVE MY ATTENTION tweet at 11:07am: FED'S DALY: THE NUMBER OF MISSING JOBS ALSO HAS MY ATTENTION. tweet at 11:09am: Fed's Daly: Rate Hikes Now Could Be ‘Quite Premature’, Could Leave Economy Short On Both Price Stability And Employment

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