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Will the RBNZ Edge Out Norges Bank to be the First High-Income Country to Hike Rates Next Week?
The key driving force in the foreign exchange market that has lifted the dollar is a reconsideration of the trajectory of Fed policy. Consider that since the 2-year US yield reached a six-week low near the 200-day moving average slightly below 16 bp on August 4, it has risen for six of the past eight sessions to almost reach almost 25 bp before stabilizing. The high for the year so far was set in mid-June near 28 bp. One of the reasons we suggested that the Fed had been reluctant to talk formally about tapering was that tapering was not just about the pace and composition of the Fed's asset purchases, but it was a ... (full story)