-
May US NFP: Will They Get Back on Track?
First, let’s look at the expectations for the headline NFP. Analysts have pared back their expectations after the major miss last time, and there is a really shaky consensus around 650K jobs created, compared to the 266K reported last time. However, the range of expectations runs from 450K to 800K, with few analysts expressing confidence after the consensus has been wildly wrong every month this year. The second thing to pay close attention to is the revision of the prior month’s numbers. This happens every time but hasn’t been this important in quite a while. The initial consensus was for a million jobs ... (full story)