How To Call Support & Resistance Like a Pro

The Global Outlook  Vaccine‐driven recovery.  But divergence across countries:  In economic outlook  And in virus prevalence, and risks of further lockdown‐related disruption 2. The Globalization Question  A Protectionist Narrative  “Self‐reliance to build resilience”  But concentration on domestic production can be a riskier strategy  IMF and other forecasters have been revising up global GDP growth forecasts.  But larger upgrades in advanced economies than emerging and developing economies.  And heterogeneity even within advanced economies – strongest upgrades in the US. IMF: expected change in structural primary fiscal balance tweet at 9:06am: BOE’S TENREYRO: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS GROWING AGAIN. tweet at 9:07am: BOE’S TENREYRO: RESHORING IS A DANGEROUS TECHNIQUE FOR THE WORLD.

The Business Outlook Survey indicator moved up again, signalling further improvement in business sentiment. chart Business confidence across all regions has strengthened. Many firms consider the impacts of the pandemic on their activities to be behind them. Firms’ outlooks for domestic and foreign demand have improved from low levels a year ago, as most businesses are no longer preoccupied with pandemic-related uncertainty. Still, some businesses tied to high‑contact services continue to report weakness in demand. Nearly two‑thirds of firms indicated their sales have reached or exceeded pre-pandemic levels—an increase from the winter survey and a sign that the recovery is broadening further (Chart 2). Half of businesses reported that the second wave of containment measures and lockdowns had a smaller or no adverse impact on their sales compared with the first wave. Firms noted that this is largely because they themselves—and their customers—have adapted to the evolving crisis. For example, businesses now have greater capacity for more online sales, staff are set up and familiar with remote work, and cleaning and physical distancing protocols are in place. With uncertainty having receded and vaccination rollouts continuing, firms’ indicators of future sales have strengthened again (Chart 3). For many businesses, demand from domestic and foreign customers—particularly from the United States—has improved from a year ago. Firms’ sales outlooks are also supported by low interest rates and a shift in consumer preferences to products and services that make it easier for Canadians to stay at home and reduce contact with others. For examp tweet at 10:30am: BoC Overall Business Outlook Survey Q1: 2.9 (prev 1.3) - Business Outlook Future Sales Q1: 52.0 (prev 48.0) tweet at 10:30am: BOC SURVEY: CONSUMERS' HOPES FOR HOUSE PRICE INCREASES HAVE RISEN ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE ESTIMATED PREDICTED YEAR-OVER-YEAR INCREASE IN CANADA CURRENTLY AT 5.32%, THE FASTEST SINCE THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2016. tweet at 10:31am: BOC SURVEY INFLATION ASPIRATIONS FOR BUSINESSES HAVE RISEN, BUT MOST ARE STILL BELOW THE BANK OF CANADA'S 1 TO 3 GOAL RANGE.BoC: Many firms consider impacts of pandemic on activity to be behind them "Many firms consider the impacts of the pandemic on their activities to be behind them," the Bank of Canada (BoC) noted in its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter on Monday. Key takeaways as summarized by Reuters "Survey shows continued improvement in business sentiment; outlook indicator hits highest since level since mid-2018." "64% of firms indicated sales have reached or exceeded pre-pandemic levels; this is higher than the 52% recorded in Q4 and a sign recovery is broadening further." "Domestic and foreign sales prospects have picked up from weak levels a year ago, but outlook remains challenging for firms tied to high-contact services." "19% of firms do not expect their sales to return to pre‑pandemic levels in the next 12 months." "Sales outlooks supported by low interest rates and shift in consumer preferences to products and services that make it easier for people to stay at home." "Businesses intend to increase investment spending to meet growing demand and add needed capacity; plans to hire are common for firms with healthy sales outlooks." "Reports of capacity pressures are

tweet at 10:32am: ECB's De Cos: - PEPP's flexibility proving useful at present - Fiscal policy should be first line of defense #ECB $EUR