Global: Will the liquidity tsunami crash the US dollar?
We predict an enormous rise in US excess liquidity in coming months, a liquidity tsunami only surpassed during the pandemic panic of spring 2020. Will this crash the dollar or are there reasons to doubt this story? Will Jay-Jay mean Nay-Nay for the Dollar? We have been tracking US excess liquidity and the Fed's balance sheet for several years, at least since August 2014 when one of the authors of this piece argued Quantitative Tightening would push the USD higher. See here. We have also tracked gyrations in the Treasury's TGA, such as when we argued the debt ceiling deal of 2019 could cause a dearth of dollars here ... (full story)